Disturbance transiting "Zone of Tropical Death"

[MGC]

Now that the strong wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, an area historically very unfavorable for cyclogenesis, I'd be very surprised if a LLCC forms. I would also not be surprised if recon is cancelled tomorrow. Viewing the sat loops this evening, one will note convection developing ahead of the system associated with an ULL. This convection will act to draw energy away from the disturbance and disrupt the moisture feed from the western side of the system. As such, I doubt anything developes until the disturbance reaches the central to western Caribbean........MGC

[Stormsfury]

Now that the strong wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, an area historically very unfavorable for cyclogenesis, I'd be very surprised if a LLCC forms. I would also not be surprised if recon is cancelled tomorrow. Viewing the sat loops this evening, one will note convection developing ahead of the system associated with an ULL. This convection will act to draw energy away from the disturbance and disrupt the moisture feed from the western side of the system. As such, I doubt anything developes until the disturbance reaches the central to western Caribbean........MGC

The whole area has become a lot more moisture-laden from 24 hours ago ... however, what concerns me the most (in regards to the invest) is how fast it continues to move ... roughly 25 mph now ... and the ULL to its west, which is also moving west but nowhere near as fast as Invest 95L ...
The wave still has a discernable spin to it, but again, on last light visible imagery, I saw nothing to indicate an LLC ... very hard to close off something with such a forward movement ...

SF

[cycloneye]

Yes Stormsfury it has to slow down in it's foward speed to have a chance.If it survives the eastern caribbean graveyard then all bets are off with this system in the western caribbean.

[ColdFront77]

This system has potential until it is totally not an entity anymore. The National Hurricane continues to believe "development is possible," rather than saying that "development is not unlikely at this time."

The upper level low to the systems west can move away at about its current speed as this strong tropical wave can slow down in response to the weather systems around both features, including the Bermuda High and the upper level low in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Thunder44]

The NHC believes it could develop even in the Eastern Carribean, otherwise they wouldn't have two recon flights scheduled today.

[Tip]

Rapid development of convection overnight from the latest IR in the so-called "Zone of Death." However, it is still clipping along at 20 mph.