Ok Folks

[Guest]

Can someone explain to me what's happening in the GOM? Sure is alot of convection firing up down there. I don't see any circulation making it tropical in nature? Wonder if it will move onshore or if it will move up towards Mississppi and give Lindaloo her increased rain changes...

Comments welcome.

[ColdFront77]

Excerpt from 2:05 National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Discussion:

MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE ATLC BASIN CONTINUES TO DISPLAY SEVERAL FEATURES...THE FLOW ITSELF HAS BECOME MUCH LESS NOISY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH LARGER-SCALE FEATURES NOW DOMINATING. OVER THE GLFMEX...VIRTUALLY ALL TRACES OF ONCE-T.S. BILL HAVE SKIRTED NEWD TO THE CAROLINAS...BEING PUSHED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EXTENDS SWD TO THE GULF COAST. OVER THE GULF ITSELF...A RIDGE AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WHICH STRETCHES FROM CNTRL MEXICO ENE TO CNTRL FLORIDA AND THEN NWD ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE RIDGE...COUPLED WITH THE SUBTRPCL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WWD FROM THE WRN ATLC...HAS CREATED MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALIGNED OFFSHORE THE COASTAL STATES IN A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN THE NEXT 48 HRS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WWD AND WILL ALLOW NELY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW.


The activity in the Gulf of Mexico is currently moving west to east, parallel to the coast. Thunderstorms are moving toward central Florida from the eastern Gulf of Mexico associated with this system. I am somewhat surprised the rain chances aren't higher than they are across central Florida.

[JetMaxx]

IMHO there's nothing to worry about ticka....looks like a typical July 4th holiday weekend shaping up across the deep south and southeast...

Partly cloudy, hot, and very humid with scattered thunderstorms...especially during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Sincerely,
Perry

[Lindaloo]

That is good news for us here in Mississippi. Guess the rain chances are for afternoon seasonal thunderstorms. Thanks guys.

Not good news for Florida.

[wx247]

Dr. Lyons mentioned last hour that an upper level low would be moving the trough axis a little farther north in the vicinity of Texas, bringing some better chances for rain there in the next day or two.

[Lindaloo]

Local met here said the same thing on his forecast at 6 central. All that would be drifting back to the north. They have however decreased our chances of rain for tomorrow to 30% and from 70% to 60% on the fourth.

[southerngale]

That's good news Garrett, however, according to one local met, our chances are still only 30% - 40% through Monday. I read on another station's site 20% for Thursday and nothing after that. Those are the only 2 stations that I've seen forecasts for. I actually missed the news so I checked their websites. We'll see...none of them are usually too accurate, especially days in advance.

I hope you're right though...we could use some rain!! (I know I sound like a broken record....but every time I say that I keep hoping it'll be the last)

[vbhoutex]

What you are seeing in the GOM is the left overs from TS BIll and an ULL near Tampico. The left overs from TS Bill is a low level trough across the N W GOM which is enhancing precipitation chances along the Tx and LS coasts, mostyly TX. The ULL is slowly moving W but will push abundant moisture N and NWward to interact with the trough featrure and give us about a 50% chance of showers in SE TX. today.

[wx247]

Glad to see some moisture back in that vacinity.

[ColdFront77]

That is indeed what it is, David. The thunderstorm activity over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is moving eastward toward me in central Florida.