Breathing...

[The_Cycloman_PR]

The wave of 50'w increased it's convection overnight and mantain a tiny but strong cell of convection near 12'n. There's a low level circulations under the cell and look's interesting. This wave has persisted since it came out of Africa several days ago fighting it's way across the Atlantic, and even had an invest, but it was too way down when it was in the mid Atlantic (arround 7.5 nort 35.0west) and lost almost all it's convection. Now it has been moving west northwest and it is on an area of better conditions for development althought there's a low north of Hispaniola that could put a barrier for it's future development and disipate it again. But if the low noth of the Hispaniola disipates or move to the north and the trough in the Caribbean disipates then this wave could encounter good conditions to develop into something else...Interesting system.



http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html



Cycloman.

[Steve H.]

Yes, right now its sit back and watch mode for the liittle swirl. Its at a point where it will continue to build or fade. Let's watch. Cheers!!

[cycloneye]

Agree with you Cycloman and Steve it is a time to wait and see what this will do.

[Guest]

Thanks for posting the link that I can click on and see it right away what you are talking about....

Wait and see game again.

Patricia

[jabber]

Wish the air ahead was a bit more moist. The shear does not seem to bad, a couple patches here and there.

[vbhoutex]

Vewy interwesting!! At first glance this looks like a loner supercell or some such drifting over the ocean. Clooser examination reveals a "sneaker" trying to find it's way to better conditions to feed on and grow. Definitely needs to be watched as it is in an area that climatology starts to favor this time of year, even though conditions aren't prime right now. Good catch Cycloman_PR!!

[Colin]

Very interesting system for sure... I don't think it'll develop into anything, but sure, it's something to keep an eye on.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Thanks for the replies guys!!

Last pic shows a decrease of the convection but it has again the invest up and 1.0 D'vorak numbers so it's realy deserves watching. The atmosphere overthere is somewhat stable and that's why it's so hard for the wave to gain convection and develop thunderstorms. Also there's till a trough over the central Caribbean decending from an upperlow north of Hispaniola. It future will depend of those factors, the stable airmass the upperlow and the trough. However... the SST'S are very warm across the the 50 to 60'w and if the airmass become more humid and the wave gain some thunderstorms and convection then we could have something else. Still I expect some showers and wind for the Islands for the weekend if the system does'nt develop.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html


Cycloman.

[wx247]

Something to definitely keep an eye on. What is the forecast look like for that trough in the Carib.?

[The_Cycloman_PR]

I could'nt find a forecast for the trough of the mid Caribbean on local NWS forecast or the NHC's tropical weather discussion for the Atlantic basin but if you look at the water vapor image link I include on this post and click on the button "Animate image bellow", get the mobiloop and you will see that the upper low is already moving northwest over the Bahamas but it have another tail end trough over northeast PR that goes down at the east of the islands into the wave, It clearly seen that the trough is interacting with the wave inhibiting it's progress and that's the reason the wave has been loosing the convection. With this interaction of the wave with the trough, I don't see good probabilities for development until of course the trough lose power or disipate. Still our NWS local forecast discussion for the weekend call for an increase of showers and wind for the USVI and PR.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html


Cycloman