GFDL brings Florence down to 934MB in 126 hours

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jusforsean
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#41 Postby jusforsean » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:22 pm

Josephine96 wrote:I don't know if most if us Floridians like that GFDL ya have posted up there..


No, sure dont, I think I will leave my rubbermaids packed and all my stuff in from ernesto for at least another week or 2
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tgenius
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#42 Postby tgenius » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:24 pm

Does that GFDL keep it west? I see its basically parallel to the FL coastline... and seems like a decent sized storm too!
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#43 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:26 pm

Looks like it keeps it west. My question is.. how strong will it be as it approaches if it decides to come this way..?
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#44 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:28 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Looks like it keeps it west. My question is.. how strong will it be as it approaches if it decides to come this way..?


quite strong a 934 mb. Let's hope it doesn't happen.
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#45 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:34 pm

That'd be what? category 4?
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#46 Postby Grease Monkey » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:39 pm

I don't see the difference with this model and reading the story of the three little pigs.
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#47 Postby Meso » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:29 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp21.png

The 06z GFDL at 126 hours
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kenl01
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#48 Postby kenl01 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:11 am

doubt it very strongly now. Still have significant shear over the system and it's still a disorganized depression, two days later. Hugo was 134mb at landfall in Chas,SC. The chances of this TD6 being that strong by Friday is less than 5 percent. GFDL allways overestimates intensity, especially in El-Nino type conditions. My best estimate by Friday is about 60mph, if it organizes at all by then.
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#49 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:14 am

I'm going higher.. Cat 1 on friday..
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#50 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:31 am

I'd think it would be a slow developer but once the shear eases off then ther eis no reason to suggest that it can't become at the least a cat-1/2, afterall it was Irene that had so many problems last year in this sort of area yet still came out of it as a decent hurricane.
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