Is there any chance the it will go farther east?

[DanKellFla]

Just -removed-, but do any of you pros (or not so pros) think it could keep on curving east and just leave South Florida alone?

[wzrgirl1]

no

[jlauderdal]

Just -removed-, but do any of you pros (or not so pros) think it could keep on curving east and just leave South Florida alone?

I said it saturday in a post when the east tuff started and i will say it again, trend is your friend. Yes it could go east but now the models have g-4 upper air data so we have seen better agreement and the error factor should be reduced. Lets see what kind of shape the system is in after leaving cuba and where it leaves and when it leaves.

[DanKellFla]

wzrgirl1, It's OK, tell me how you really feel.

[TheShrimper]

Personally, I do not see this going further west than what is depicted by the forecast points by the NHC. Local met this AM, displayed thier Viper model run which basically a reflection of the KW to Marco, up the west coast then NNW to the panhandle. Unfortunately at this stage, you cant take a chance, and must be ready, especially with the intensity forecasts that have been posted. Myself, if I was in Islamorada, I would be real nervous and also north to PB county.

[Nimbus]

The best track for land interaction would have been down Cuba leaving only a short time over the Florida straits for development.

Unfortunately short term there appears to be an ULL dropping south that may kick the storm north over just the tip of cuba.

Once the ridge takes over steering the track should trend back toward the northwest.

IF the trough arrives before Ernesto makes landfall or he recurves earlier than expected we could get lucky.

Most of us on the west coast of Florida are probably breathing a sigh of relief this morning, but its still not over. tracks along the north coast of Cuba have bred some real nasty canes historicallv.