This post is not the opinion of storm2k, just the opinion of the poster. For all offical info, refer to the NHC and local NWS forecasts and statements.
Today Ernesto got hammered. We all would agree with this, but as of later visable images, it appears to be moving away from the hatian mountians. I have a wierd feeling about this one, that it COULD blow up tonight. Just like it did last night. Why? Because ernie is just about to move over some of the best favoriable conditions in the entire tropics right now. Because of this I forecast it to hit cuba as a weak cat 2. I know, I know sounds way far-fetched, but remember, it actually strengthened in an area of strong shear. With this storm anything is possible.
Now the next big question, Cuba. Where is it going to cross? I will go with West-central cuba for a crossing point. Which will do a little bit for him, but it will not take him down to a tropical storm IMO. I think ernie makes cuban landfall at Minimal cat 2, weaking down to 80 by the time he gets off the coast.
THE GOM!!!!!! Yes I really think that he could blow up big time here, and become a major cat 3 hurricane with maximum winds at landfall near a cat 4. I make landfall in florida Very close to the Tampa metro area, then bee-lining Northeast towards the Jacksonville area with it still as a hurricane.
It will go back into the atlantic as a cat 1, but I do not expect much strengthing from there, and his final landfall will be in South Carolina.
