12 Z NOGAPS direct hit on S.FL

[Vortex]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=060

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, but if this is right then it will also only be at 1004mb at the time...a weak TS.

[jlauderdal]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2006082712&prod=prp&tau=060

thx vortex, lol. c ya at a1a and las olas at the elbow room for a few drinks during the storm.

[dwg71]

yeah, but if this is right then it will also only be at 1004mb at the time...a weak TS.

Its very possible, it looks like shear and haiti is having their way with Ernie.

[Stormsfury]

NOGAPS has Ernesto moving almost due north after 60 hours thru most of Florida and then moving NNE across Coastal GA and the Carolinas afterwards ...

SF

[fci]

After the trend of GFS and NOGAPS yesterday, this is no surprise to me.

I suspect that it will get flamed by many who just don't believe this one could be a S. Fl issue.

I hope they are right but am concerned that NOGAPS is.....

[Stormsfury]

yeah, but if this is right then it will also only be at 1004mb at the time...a weak TS.

Don't pay attention to global model pressure forecasts with tropical systems as they are just about always grossly missed. Globals simply don't have the skill to resolve pressure variances within tropical system cores b/c of the global's resolution simply can't resolve mesoscale (and microscale issues) ...

Its very possible, it looks like shear and haiti is having their way with Ernie.

Land interactions yes. Shear, no. The ULL is well to the west and shearing effects alone are now negliable (that's clearly evident with the expanding outflow patterns above Ernesto, improving by the minute.

SF

[jabber]

Might not matter anyway.... Ernie not looking so good right now.

[gatorcane]

its very common for South Florida to get hit from the south but usually late September or October.

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see that happening with a weak system and a ridge directly to its north. I could be wrong, but this would be a pleasant suprise!

[MWatkins]

yeah, but if this is right then it will also only be at 1004mb at the time...a weak TS.

Its very possible, it looks like shear and haiti is having their way with Ernie.

I haven't read all of the posts so I don't know where this shear idea started. There is no significant shear affecting Ernesto. This is a combination of orographic interaction with high mountain ranges there in that peninsula, interruption of the circulation on the eastern half of the storm due to the big island, and a dirunal down pulse of thunderstorm activity.

It is already pulsing back up and has probably stopped weakening for now. In a few more hours it will pop off the peninsula and it will most likely resume strengthening until it reaches Cuba. The untimate track over Cuba is going to be the big story.

Shear, however, is not the story.

MW

[Innotech]

yeah, but if this is right then it will also only be at 1004mb at the time...a weak TS.

Its very possible, it looks like shear and haiti is having their way with Ernie.

I haven't read all of the posts so I don't know where this shear idea started. There is no significant shear affecting Ernesto. This is a combination of orographic interaction with high mountain ranges there in that peninsula, interruption of the circulation on the eastern half of the storm due to the big island, and a dirunal down pulse of thunderstorm activity.

It is already pulsing back up and has probably stopped weakening for now. In a few more hours it will pop off the peninsula and it will most likely resume strengthening until it reaches Cuba. The untimate track over Cuba is going to be the big story.

Shear, however, is not the story.

MW

scorpion started that shear stuff..

[cinlfla]

yeah, but if this is right then it will also only be at 1004mb at the time...a weak TS.

Its very possible, it looks like shear and haiti is having their way with Ernie.

I haven't read all of the posts so I don't know where this shear idea started. There is no significant shear affecting Ernesto. This is a combination of orographic interaction with high mountain ranges there in that peninsula, interruption of the circulation on the eastern half of the storm due to the big island, and a dirunal down pulse of thunderstorm activity.

It is already pulsing back up and has probably stopped weakening for now. In a few more hours it will pop off the peninsula and it will most likely resume strengthening until it reaches Cuba. The untimate track over Cuba is going to be the big story.

Shear, however, is not the story.

MW

Umm excuse me but you can find information about the shear here.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88914

[MWatkins]

Thanks for providing the link...but there is no synoptic evidence of 20 knots of shear. Derrick and I will have to disagree here...whick is fine. Differences of opinion happen all the time.

As far as Ernesto goes, also remember recon is getting information way up at 700mb instead of the usual 850mb flight level because of all of the mountains around. This makes the 700MB to surface pressure calculation less reliable than 850MB to surface...and the graident could be easily disrupted by the mountains. This is probably why they are using 1002mb instead of 1007mb as the pressure in the models etc.

I think too much is getting read into a fairly straight-forward deal. Land is messing with ernesto right now...that's pretty much all there is to it.

MW

[Vortex]

Mike,

Excellent post. A Perfect synopsis of the goings on real-time with Ernesto. Don't be a stranger:))

[Stratusxpeye]

Charley was meant to be a small cat 2 at landfall as well but we've seen what the untouched heat content of the florida straights and southwest florida coast can do to hurricanes. We'll have to see but intesity forecast are almost useless in most cases. Just a general guess on what the atmospheric conditions well be. A lot better than what they use to be but not perfect. just hope ernesto doesn't harness the gulf's heat content