The initial few frames of the GFS 12Z run are out...and it looks like it is showing a little weakness at 500MB to the NE of Ernesto...this weakness has been analyized in the model for a couple of runs in a row now...and would explain why it looks like Ernesto is diving into the teeth of the ridge.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_006m.gif
This makes the GFS take Ernesto up the eastern tip of Cuba and does not prolong the trip over land...instead getting the center north of the island.
However...after about 24 hours...the weakness shown by the model fills in...and the GFS resules a WNW track under the axis of the ridge over Florida.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036m.gif
After this point it doesn't really matter what the model shows...the concern is how fast does the 500MB shift eastward and allow Ernesto to spring loose? The synoptic drops tonight will help.
If this track materializes...NHC intensity guidance could be a bit conservative due to reduced land interaction...and of course this will make for a nervous few days on the east coast as well.
There is still plenty of time to watch this and I am not saying this is going to happen...but the GFS seems to have a good initial read...and this would explain the NW track we have been seeing since yesterday afternoon...and I know folks will be keying in on this as the model finishes...
MW
24 Hour Northward Shift...Possible Cause
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24 Hour Northward Shift...Possible Cause
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brunota2003
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Thank you mike...exellent post as usual 
However...I dont want one up here...the county southwest of me, Onslow County, is already in the 5 day cone...I dont want it any closer and am hoping when it hits Cuba it gets torn completely up, but it seems less and less likely it will do that...I will be watching for sure though...
However...I dont want one up here...the county southwest of me, Onslow County, is already in the 5 day cone...I dont want it any closer and am hoping when it hits Cuba it gets torn completely up, but it seems less and less likely it will do that...I will be watching for sure though...
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DelrayMorris
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Mike,
Does that mean that we on the SE Coast of Florida would be more at risk? I'm sorry to seem dense. I probably need more coffee (or less). Or does that just mean that the intensity will be much worse for the West Coast of Florida?
And, please, people, don't accuse me of -removed-. I can tell you that there is nothing I want less than another {BLEEP}ing hurricane.
Does that mean that we on the SE Coast of Florida would be more at risk? I'm sorry to seem dense. I probably need more coffee (or less). Or does that just mean that the intensity will be much worse for the West Coast of Florida?
And, please, people, don't accuse me of -removed-. I can tell you that there is nothing I want less than another {BLEEP}ing hurricane.
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cycloneye
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Dr Lyons talked this morning about this possible scenario.He said Ernesto would move thru the NE tip of Cuba,then ride close to the coast of Cuba WNW.
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ALhurricane
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Good analysis Mike.
That ULL low that has been north of Ernesto may be the quilty party in creating that weakness. There is obviously something hanging Ernesto up and this may be the cause.
This is definitely one of the more interesting tropical cyclones to watch and forecast for. It is not an envious task the folks at the NHC now have.
That ULL low that has been north of Ernesto may be the quilty party in creating that weakness. There is obviously something hanging Ernesto up and this may be the cause.
This is definitely one of the more interesting tropical cyclones to watch and forecast for. It is not an envious task the folks at the NHC now have.
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brunota2003
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what software do you use?Aquawind wrote:Dang I just loaded my software and it's within 50 miles at it's peak off my coast. I am hoping the islands are an issue and the trend eastward stops.. no offense to the others.. Not interested in anything more than forecasted now.. that 100kt stuff is creepy.
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FritzPaul
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cycloneye wrote:Dr Lyons talked this morning about this possible scenario.He said Ernesto would move thru the NE tip of Cuba,then ride close to the coast of Cuba WNW.
I agree with this scenerio. From WV imagery, if Ernie continues to move NW, he'll run into the southern periphery of the high while the high is retreating east, thus Ernie would resume a WNW course until it can get around the left side of the high and turn N.
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Aquawind
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brunota2003 wrote:what software do you use?Aquawind wrote:Dang I just loaded my software and it's within 50 miles at it's peak off my coast. I am hoping the islands are an issue and the trend eastward stops.. no offense to the others.. Not interested in anything more than forecasted now.. that 100kt stuff is creepy.
HURREVAC
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brunota2003
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cool...I'll look it up and maybe try it out...thank youAquawind wrote:brunota2003 wrote:what software do you use?Aquawind wrote:Dang I just loaded my software and it's within 50 miles at it's peak off my coast. I am hoping the islands are an issue and the trend eastward stops.. no offense to the others.. Not interested in anything more than forecasted now.. that 100kt stuff is creepy.
HURREVAC
EDIT: nevermind...
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