Does anyone have the 00z 8/27 GFDL??

[Vortex]

Thanks in advance. Or the 00z ukmet?

[Steve]

No. CMC is out on the FSU site. UKMET shows 0827 but there are no graphics yet. For those who are liking the sudden shift toward Florida, here's the FSU MM5 depiction which has also moved toward the FL coast. At some point, either every new model is wrong or something's going on .

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ERNESTO.d1.movie.gif

Steve

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The only thing i see was the weakness at 700 i posted.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Thank you!

Do we see a continued trend here folks? I would think the new NHC track will shift just a little eastward later this morning.

[stormspotter]

Call it a wrap folks, "E" is heading to S. Florida., Remind me to call all the professional mets I know and tell them they can toss their forecast, the GFS has nailed it down. I knew we would eventually get 5 day forecasting accurate. Goes to show you, man can make a difference.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

Mostly likely yes. They wanted to shift it to the right on the last advisory but the GFDL and the FSU superensemble convienced them other wise.

[wxmann_91]

Mostly likely yes. They wanted to shift it to the right on the last advisory but the GFDL and the FSU superensemble convienced them other wise.

The GFDL, WRF-ARW, and Superensemble are the best hurricane models that are out there. You'd better believe that if they disagree, there's something going on.

[hicksta]

Im hopin your bein sarcastic

Call it a wrap folks, "E" is heading to S. Florida., Remind me to call all the professional mets I know and tell them they can toss their forecast, the GFS has nailed it down. I knew we would eventually get 5 day forecasting accurate. Goes to show you, man can make a difference.

[stormspotter]

Im hopin your bein sarcastic

Call it a wrap folks, "E" is heading to S. Florida., Remind me to call all the professional mets I know and tell them they can toss their forecast, the GFS has nailed it down. I knew we would eventually get 5 day forecasting accurate. Goes to show you, man can make a difference.

Let me just say, beyond 48 hrs dont count your chickens.

[Starburst]

All of Florida still needs to monitor. I just read up on a hurricane hunter's blog that is doing the synoptic flight today and he said in a nutshell that the models are not useful right now that is why they keep flip flopping. The center also keeps reforming so the track will change. He also said the early Monday a.m. models will have the flight data inputed in them and then we will start to see the best track and they should be able to get a handle on the whole thing.