Forecasts shifting back west? Does it happen?

[crazycajuncane]

I am having a hard time remembering a recent storm in which the initial tracks were to the west and shifted east.... then back to the west. The storms I think of are like.... Charley.... went east of it's original track.... Rita went big time east of Houston landfall..... Katrina jogged east of the New Orleans direct hit.... so now my question is.... once the tracks shift east.... do you guys really believe they will track back west?

I wonder if the tracks shifted TOO far east on this one... cause it's now back on the WNW path.... it took a big jog north today, but I'm having a hard time being sold on this major shift east.

I feel really good now about Louisiana being missed. If the tracks stay the way they are or even shift more east.... the whole state will be fine.

[Jevo]

Stacy Stewart is probably one of the best forecasters in that office..... Having met him a couple of times I can assure you that he does not make judgment calls to dramatically shift a forecast track.

With that said.. stranger things have happened, but with a little more than 72 hours to start evacs I think the NHC may be getting somewhat confident with their forecast.

Keep in mind that the NHC does not create forecasts based upon jogs and motions..... They have multi million dollar supercomputers to do that.

That on top of model consensus like this Im sure makes the NHC confident with their forecast

[linkerweather]

Charley was right on track back in 2004. The track actually shifted west the day before and then the storm followed its path from 2 days prior.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CH ... hics.shtml

that is a link of the graphics from Charley. Landfall was on a Friday. Thursday was the only day that had a tampa landfall. Wednesday and earlier was Ft. Myers, Punta gorda area.

[alan1961]

I wouldn't be surprised if it never got in the gulf at all, that big shift to the north yesterday suggests to me that it could go over cuba more to its eastern side, i think that shear has had a big part to play in that to its west but another player was a lot of shear off of South America too.

[crazycajuncane]

Yeah... I'm all about the million dollar NHC tracks, but I can't ever be 100% sold on that... I've seen tracks change sooo much 5 days out. I'm basically just asking if there is a possibility to think this thing will bounce back west? It seems all the models... well ALMOST all the models are agreeing on the pull into Florida.

I am just shocked over the hundreds of miles change in track over 24 hours.... can I expect the track to change this dramatically again? I've been tracking canes for years now.... and for the most part I see major canes taking that east sidestep from it's track.

[Jevo]

Yeah... I'm all about the million dollar NHC tracks, but I can't ever be 100% sold on that... I've seen tracks change sooo much 5 days out. I'm basically just asking if there is a possibility to think this thing will bounce back west? It seems all the models... well ALMOST all the models are agreeing on the pull into Florida.

I am just shocked over the hundreds of miles change in track over 24 hours.... can I expect the track to change this dramatically again? I've been tracking canes for years now.... and for the most part I see major canes taking that east sidestep from it's track.

youre absolutley right..... Id like to see an upper level NOAA flight going out to get more info in the model.. but we have to wait until tomorrow

FLIGHT THREE
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO
C. 27/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

[SouthAlabamaWX]

Special Upper Air balloon releases (06 and 18Z) will be conducted starting at 18Z today. I would like to see how the special releases and the NOAA jet data is handled by the models.

[TampaFl]

Charley was right on track back in 2004. The track actually shifted west the day before and then the storm followed its path from 2 days prior.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CH ... hics.shtml

that is a link of the graphics from Charley. Landfall was on a Friday. Thursday was the only day that had a tampa landfall. Wednesday and earlier was Ft. Myers, Punta gorda area.

Good morning Linkerweather, what are your thoughts on Ernesto's track that was issued this morning? This looks like possible a paralleling storm for the West Coast (or worse a Charley, Donna type track). Thoughts and comments welcomed.


Robert

[linkerweather]

My thoughts are that the NHC decided to go with something at day 4 and 5. That is why the track changed. The globals had been more than just hinting at a weakness in the ridge for a few days now. Admittedly, I didn't hold much stock in the Rockies' shortwave causing a NE turn, I was sold on a N move through the eastern gulf. Interesting developments to say the least. I will say this.....if you are in a low lying area of western florida or even the Panhandle, you should already know what your plans are. This is precisely why we(the media) go so crazy at least in hurricane prone areas, in May and June with dozens of pre-season hurricane prep stories. I don't live near the water, but I have plywood measureed, cut, and marked from before the 2004 season.
Also, I have plenty of non-perishable food. Although I went to OMaha steaks about 5 days ago so if we lose power, I might be grilling for my neighborhood for Labor Day weekend.

At this point, I wouldn't panic or worrym but just be aware. Watch for model trends for the next 24 hours, also, note where i moves over CUba and for how long. That will be the intensity wild card.

Although, even a weaker storm in the SE gulf should have time to intensify. The SE gulf is ripe.

[robbielyn]

My thoughts are that the NHC decided to go with something at day 4 and 5. That is why the track changed. The globals had been more than just hinting at a weakness in the ridge for a few days now. Admittedly, I didn't hold much stock in the Rockies' shortwave causing a NE turn, I was sold on a N move through the eastern gulf. Interesting developments to say the least. I will say this.....if you are in a low lying area of western florida or even the Panhandle, you should already know what your plans are. This is precisely why we(the media) go so crazy at least in hurricane prone areas, in May and June with dozens of pre-season hurricane prep stories. I don't live near the water, but I have plywood measureed, cut, and marked from before the 2004 season.
Also, I have plenty of non-perishable food. Although I went to OMaha steaks about 5 days ago so if we lose power, I might be grilling for my neighborhood for Labor Day weekend.

At this point, I wouldn't panic or worrym but just be aware. Watch for model trends for the next 24 hours, also, note where i moves over CUba and for how long. That will be the intensity wild card.

Although, even a weaker storm in the SE gulf should have time to intensify. The SE gulf is ripe.

Hey Josh don't know if you're still up but I have a hard time buying the peninsula solution except if it's a tropical storm, because statistically, we don't get hurricanes in the tampa bay area hardly at all. 1922,1965 yes. But how many times have we been in the cone just to have it shift west again. I guess there is always a first time. Everyone should keep aware and be ready just in case as you said. By the way BayNews9 rocks!!!!! What does viper say? Sorry if it's not called viper but I know you have viper technology so you know what I mean. I'd hate for another charley but hate it worse for tampa if it goes north of there for storm surge reasons. Have a great day and we will be tuned. robbielyn

[TampaFl]

Good morning Robbielyn. It was the Oct 1921 hurricane that was the last direct hit on the Tampa Bay area. Alma of 1966 paralled the West Coast in June, Donna in 1960 passed just east of the area but still produced winds 80-90 mph here. So do not let your guard down. Remeber Charley was forecast to hit here but changed course just before hitting SW FL. Not to say Ernesto won't do the same, but as of 5:00AM Ernesto would go in north of the area. You are right this track will change over the next several days but it appears that all the models are now coming into better agreement, especially in the 4 -5 day track (see above model plot posted by Jevo).

As Linkerweather said review your plans now and be prepared to respond later this week.

Robert

[Stormcenter]

Yeah... I'm all about the million dollar NHC tracks, but I can't ever be 100% sold on that... I've seen tracks change sooo much 5 days out. I'm basically just asking if there is a possibility to think this thing will bounce back west? It seems all the models... well ALMOST all the models are agreeing on the pull into Florida.

I am just shocked over the hundreds of miles change in track over 24 hours.... can I expect the track to change this dramatically again? I've been tracking canes for years now.... and for the most part I see major canes taking that east sidestep from it's track.

Why are you shocked? Before entering the GOM they had Katrina going up the FL big bend 4 days out and the 72 hours she was projected to make landfall almost exactly where she did. My point is I think they they got a good handle on Ernesto now but NOTHING is written in stone.

[Stormcenter]

Ernesto has a lot of deep convection by looks ragged. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html