TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

BensonTCwatcher · #441 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:03 am

caneman wrote:
BensonTCwatcher wrote:I am wondering if it will over over Cuba, the rapid strenghtening and lack of strong steering right now looks like north for little while longer.
Looks like it'll clip Eastern Cuba but not spend a lot of time over land.

Yeah, western Hsp. and far eastern Cuba is the least damaging point of crossing for the system, not good.

KWT · #442 Postby **KWT** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:06 am

Steering current maps suggests this is going to turn back towards the WNW in the next 6hrs after a jog to the NNW over the last 6hrs as thre Bermuda high re-positions itslef.

#443 Postby **Jevo** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:07 am

new hurricane thread opened up.....

Sanibel · #444 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:07 am

What we have to worry about is it jumping through that passage and THEN getting gripped by the ridge. That will pull up a 1935 scenario - no joke - in the exact same waters under perfect conditions.

jpigott · #445 Postby **jpigott** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:07 am

BensonTCwatcher wrote:
caneman wrote:
BensonTCwatcher wrote:I am wondering if it will over over Cuba, the rapid strenghtening and lack of strong steering right now looks like north for little while longer.
Looks like it'll clip Eastern Cuba but not spend a lot of time over land.

Yeah, western Hsp. and far eastern Cuba is the least damaging point of crossing for the system, not good.

If Ernesto skirts eastern Cuba, which would again be N and E of even the current NHC forecast, could that bring SEFL into play?

caneman · #446 Postby **caneman** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:09 am

Sanibel wrote:What we have to worry about is it jumping through that passage and THEN getting gripped by the ridge. That will pull up a 1935 scenario - no joke - in the exact same waters under perfect conditions.

Anyone a link for the 1935 Hurricane? I'm thinking more of a Donna type track involving a lot of Florida real estate.

BensonTCwatcher · #447 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:12 am

If Ernesto skirts eastern Cuba, which would again be N and E of even the current NHC forecast, could that bring SEFL into play?

Well, at his point it's hard to say. Certianly the ridge will steer the system, but the rapid strenghtening makes a short term track hard to pin down. an east FL landfall seems less likely than a west cost one right now

Florida_brit · #448 Postby **Florida_brit** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:14 am

Donna 1935 map

http://www.keyshistory.org/HurrD-Chart.jpg

Don't think it will do a Donna though - be really interesting to see how it progressess in the next 24hours and how much it goes over Hisp. (destoyed many a 'cane but it Ernesto isn't set for a direct hit) and Cuba.

#449 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:20 am

There is a new thread about hurricane Ernesto:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88874

Please use this new one, thx.

Can someone lock this thread?

wxwatcher2 · #450 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:52 am

[quote="SkeetoBite"]Well, this is certainly a change from last night. If the forecast was anyone but Stewart, I wouldn't be having chest pains and cold sweats right now!

If the current track verifies (I think more to the right), Ernesto is going to stop by the marina and destroy my boat, on his way to destroy my house! :cry:

Hey Skeetobite, I'm right with you as a neighbor in central florida!!

Let's hope that the ridge breaks down more rapidly and pulls Ernesto North sooner rather than later.

boca · #451 Postby **boca** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:56 am

Whats strange is yesterday it was heading 300 heading now 295 I guess they see aweakness in the ridge.

28_Storms · #452 Postby **28_Storms** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:00 am

Didn't Derek Ortt say there was no way this was going to curve and hit Florida? Can someone find that quote. Someone replied to him and said it was not responsible to be so sure 5 days out and he said it was because it would never happen. Wow.

Mac · #453 Postby **Mac** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:02 am

28_Storms wrote:Didn't Derek Ortt say there was no way this was going to curve and hit Florida? Can someone find that quote. Someone replied to him and said it was not responsible to be so sure 5 days out and he said it was because it would never happen. Wow.

Easy there, Chief. Has it hit Florida???? Don't jump the gun just yet.

28_Storms · #454 Postby **28_Storms** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:04 am

It is a possiblity and now it is forecasted by the NHC. Still can change but to say NEVER IMO is just wrong.

SouthAlabamaWX · #455 Postby **SouthAlabamaWX** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:04 am

The 06Z GFS brings it alittle more west.

#456 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:09 am

PLEASE LOCK THIS THREAD, THX. There is already a new thread about Hurricane Ernesto.

#457 Postby **TampaFl** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:09 am

Good morning Cookliey. WOW Imagin my shock when I awoke this morning. :eek:

Focus on the NWS update from NWS Tampa. The previos discussion that was issued earlier this morning was based on the hurricane staying about 200 miles off shore. Since the 5:00AM track came out they are updating there forecast packages to reflect agreater threat & deteriorating conditons Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Every one in the Tampa Bay area needs to start reviewing there hurricane plans now & be prepared to respond to a hurricane in the Wednesday/Thursday time. As I say: prepare for the worst/Hope for the best.

Robert 8-)

Damar91 · #458 Postby **Damar91** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:32 am

28_Storms wrote:Didn't Derek Ortt say there was no way this was going to curve and hit Florida? Can someone find that quote. Someone replied to him and said it was not responsible to be so sure 5 days out and he said it was because it would never happen. Wow.

Yeah, that was me, but no big thing. Believe me, I wish I would have been wrong. The lesson here is especially in weather, never say never!

TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

Who is online