0z NOGAPS very nasty for Florida

[zlaxier]

It basically hits the entire state. Makes landfall in the middle keys and then parallels the coast all the way up from Naples to Tampa and then bisects the state hitting Orlando and exiting north of Daytona around St. Augustine.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[mtm4319]

That's a Donna-type track. Except that it'd be about 3 categories weaker, as it would be down to a minimal TS or less after traversing Cuba for that long.

[Bgator]

That's a Donna-type track. Except that it'd be about 3 categories weaker, as it would be down to a minimal TS or less after traversing Cuba for that long.

Well, takes it over Cuba for about 15 hours it looks like, if its a good sized cane it can survive..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Hard to believe their just about all over FL now. I'll go to bed trying to figure out why..

[Derek Ortt]

I cannot figure out why either and it is keeping me from sleeping

[Wx_Warrior]

Go get some sleep guys...we'll be back at it 2morrow scratchng our heads...

the models love florida

[deltadog03]

Don't frett Derek....I haven't a clue either. Time will tell my friend.

[Aquawind]

Well if you guys figure it out please share so we can all get a good nights rest..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

All i see and i've said this a million times a weakness at 700. At 500 some of the models move the 500 high from east of Florida across the state into the Western GOM and leaves a weak weakness. That's all i see.

[Tertius]

Well look, we don't want the thing. When I first moved to Florida I admit it, I was excited about the prospects of seeing some real tropical weather.

Not anymore.

We bought a house and have had to watch Frances, then Jeanne, then Katrina, and of course Wilma take their best shot at it and my yardwork. The fenceposts in my yard are now driven down 42 inches and have enough concrete on them to sink an aircraft carrier. We have a brand new roof (who doesn't this year?) and pay more for homeowners insurance than Dr Kevorkian pays for malpractice insurance.

I've had enough. Let the people I disagree with in Texas have it.

[Wx_Warrior]

No wishing here...Ernie is all yours, please take him!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

[SouthAlabamaWX]

Special Upper Air flights (18Z and 06Z) begin at 18z Sunday. NOAA jet data begins later today. All this new data getting ingested into the models maybe they will become more reasonable.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

reiterating for days now...

the models are finally seeing the impact of the low that has newly formed off the GA/NE FL coastline on the high that is over florida now. it develops a weakness that erodes the ridge for a short window creating a little path through the high, essentially bisecting it at some level, which allows E to take advantage of that and pull northward through it. Only the GFS was seeing a lower pressure within the high pressure that was surrounding the area on Thur I think. None of the others were when I looked -just 1 model was.

I tried to point that out and ask what the impact would be on Thur and Fri but nobody answered me.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

That has to be what it is if that track occurs..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

thank you for acknowledging that that was a possibility! I was starting to think that my idea about that must have been so completely far fetched that nobody would even respond to it. I couldn't even get a "no way, not possible!" thank you!

[southerngale]

Well look, we don't want the thing. When I first moved to Florida I admit it, I was excited about the prospects of seeing some real tropical weather.

Not anymore.

We bought a house and have had to watch Frances, then Jeanne, then Katrina, and of course Wilma take their best shot at it and my yardwork. The fenceposts in my yard are now driven down 42 inches and have enough concrete on them to sink an aircraft carrier. We have a brand new roof (who doesn't this year?) and pay more for homeowners insurance than Dr Kevorkian pays for malpractice insurance.

I've had enough. Let the people I disagree with in Texas have it.

Having gone through Rita, I was sympathizing with you as I read your post, then I got to the last line. Please - can we all (not just you) stop with the w!shcaster comments? It does nothing for the spirit of the board. Thanks.

[PTrackerLA]

I would just like to add one thing to the 16 storms to hit Florida since 2000. Remember, Hurricane Lili was the first hurricane to strike the United States in roughly 2 years (don't know the exact date but it was 2 seasons). Just goes to show you how bad the tropics have been with regards to United States' landfalls since then. Hopefully this trend doesn't continue for much longer.

[Acral]

Keep in mind, the models and projections will shift again

[fci]

reiterating for days now...

the models are finally seeing the impact of the low that has newly formed off the GA/NE FL coastline on the high that is over florida now. it develops a weakness that erodes the ridge for a short window creating a little path through the high, essentially bisecting it at some level, which allows E to take advantage of that and pull northward through it. Only the GFS was seeing a lower pressure within the high pressure that was surrounding the area on Thur I think. None of the others were when I looked -just 1 model was.

I tried to point that out and ask what the impact would be on Thur and Fri but nobody answered me.

Oh, you forgot to mention that you got FLAMED for saying it too.