2 am advisory subtle but significant change

[Vortex]

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.


****Southern Florida now included in the monitor closely. Obviously there well aware of the guidance shift and I expect this to be reflected in the 5 am track

[Acral]

Very interesting .. still 5 days out if it maintains, and I feel that could be a question as well.

[MWatkins]

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.


****Southern Florida now included in the monitor closely. Obviously there well aware of the guidance shift and I expect this to be reflected in the 5 am track

I am thinking the same thing the second I read the advisory, Jason. Right now I would rather be here in SE Florida than Tampa...but that is a subtle and significant shift.

The slowdown vs. the 11PM advisory position is also suggestive of a center up under the deep convection...the vortex fix was only through obvs 5...they will likely find stonger winds as they look around.

MW

[SouthAlabamaWX]

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.


****Southern Florida now included in the monitor closely. Obviously there well aware of the guidance shift and I expect this to be reflected in the 5 am track

The same call to action statement was used during IVAN in 2004.

[stormspotter]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_sat.html

Slowing system, soon to be a hurricane, you can throw all models out past 48 hours.

[LAwxrgal]

So, can someone please explain to me what's caused this significant shift right? I know the center reformed itself to the east, but is there something else?

And, also, according to the GFS, a Florida Keys landfall is forecast in 3 days...wouldn't that fall under the 3-day margin for error?

[Incident_MET]

The UL low is pulling away rather quickly and the shear has been lessening during the evening. See no reason why the convection should get organized closer to the center and we see some noteworthy strengthening this morning.

[Droop12]

I agree, especially with the notable blowup of convection we saw right over the LLC before the eclipse.

[MWatkins]

I agree, especially with the notable blowup of convection we saw right over the LLC before the eclipse.

The satellite presenation after the eclipse is quite impressive. Looks like we are geting close to a hurricane if we don't have one already. The CDO and outflow are deeper and have expanded out in all directions...the upper environment..unfortunately...is improving.

MW

[SouthAlabamaWX]

I agree, especially with the notable blowup of convection we saw right over the LLC before the eclipse.

The satellite presenation after the eclipse is quite impressive. Looks like we are geting close to a hurricane if we don't have one already. The CDO and outflow are deeper and have expanded out in all directions...the upper environment..unfortunately...is improving.

MW

I agree

[Wx_Warrior]

Im not throwing any models away after 48...most are starting 2 agree. If we threw models away, we wouldnt need them.