00z GFS Lanfall over S.Fl and the Keys in 72 hours

[Vortex]

The gem(canadian) now also brings ernesto up across eastern cuba headed for southern florida

[SouthFloridawx]

The gem(canadian) now also brings ernesto up across eastern cuba headed for southern florida

Link please? Thank you...

concerned citizen from south florida.

[Vortex]

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... 12_....jpg

[Vortex]

Here's the still version if the animated link didnt work

H-48

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_048.jpg

[Regit]

Here's the still version if the animated link didnt work

H-48

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_048.jpg

I want to see more models follow before I'd put any confidence in it at all, but with that sharp a turn, it might even miss the US altogether if that model is correct

I'm only analyzing that one model run, not saying I actually think the storm is going to miss the US.

[SeaBrz_FL]

I'm *crossing fingers* going to be in Titusville as of tomorrow for the Atlantis launch and won't be here to pull stuff off the patio, just in case.

The Shuttle launch has been postponed until Monday, Canelaw. Hope you get this before you leave home.

http://www.floridatoday.com/floridatoday/blogs/spaceteam/

SB

[MWatkins]

The GFDL has chimed in...and this model has been by far the best with Ernesto so far.

It is suggestive of a southwestern Florida threat...perhaps Tampa or points south.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO   05L

INITIAL TIME   0Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            16.5             72.3           300./12.0
   6            17.0             73.3           297./10.8
  12            17.6             73.8           323./ 8.4
  18            18.6             74.4           326./11.3
  24            19.3             75.1           316./ 9.6
  30            19.7             76.3           290./12.1
  36            20.1             77.1           298./ 8.6
  42            20.9             77.9           315./10.1
  48            21.4             78.9           296./11.3
  54            21.6             80.1           278./11.2
  60            22.1             80.9           306./ 8.7
  66            22.6             81.9           294./10.5
  72            23.0             82.8           300./ 9.3
  78            23.4             83.5           294./ 7.8
  84            23.8             84.3           296./ 8.6
  90            24.1             84.4           340./ 2.9
  96            24.6             84.9           314./ 6.5
 102            25.0             85.2           322./ 4.9
 108            25.5             85.3           356./ 5.1
 114            26.1             85.1            18./ 6.1
 120            26.7             84.7            30./ 7.3
 126            27.5             84.4            19./ 8.4



Looks like I am not going to Lake city afterall.

MW

[HurricaneBill]

In 1964 Cleo came across Eastern Cuba, weakened to a tropical storm and then strengthened significantly as it impacted Southeast Florida. Winds were over 110 miles per hour.

I remember reading that Cleo's sustained winds increased from 80 mph to 110 mph in an 8-hour period prior to her Florida landfall.

[MWatkins]

Well the 0Z UKMET has chimed in...west of NOGAPS and the GFDL and GFS...but not looking so good for southwest Florida:

Code: Select all

    TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO    ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N  72.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 27.08.2006  16.6N  72.7W   MODERATE

 12UTC 27.08.2006  17.0N  73.4W   MODERATE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 28.08.2006  18.9N  74.6W   MODERATE       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 28.08.2006  20.8N  76.8W   MODERATE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 29.08.2006  22.4N  79.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 29.08.2006  23.8N  81.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 30.08.2006  24.9N  82.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 30.08.2006  26.0N  83.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 31.08.2006  27.5N  83.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 31.08.2006  29.1N  82.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.09.2006  31.8N  80.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 01.09.2006  34.7N  78.9W    STRONG        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 02.09.2006  37.3N  76.3W    STRONG        LITTLE CHANGE


MW