Ok,
Declaring Texas SAFE last year got some people a heaping helping of crow last year? My suggestion is this: follow Derek Ortt's forecast's along with the NHC's as a backup. Mr Ortt rocks when it comes to weathercasting....canecasting.....anyways, I saw one model last week nailing Galeveston. I too, like Mr. Ortt, do not buy into the weak ridge and think a Texas landfall is not out of the question. From Corpus to Houston, to Nola, factors i.e. strength, will determine where Errrrnesto goes! Plus, in Austin, we need RAIN! Our earth is scorched.......
60% OF ALL RESIDENTS ON US COASTLINES VUNERABLE TO HURRICANES ARE UN-PRE-PARED FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE DISASTER? ARE YOU???
Texas...
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Don't Y'all KNow Better By Now?
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Portastorm
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Re: Don't Y'all KNow Better By Now?
TexasF6 wrote:Ok,
Declaring Texas SAFE last year got some people a heaping helping of crow last year? My suggestion is this: follow Derek Ortt's forecast's along with the NHC's as a backup. Mr Ortt rocks when it comes to weathercasting....canecasting.....anyways, I saw one model last week nailing Galeveston. I too, like Mr. Ortt, do not buy into the weak ridge and think a Texas landfall is not out of the question. From Corpus to Houston, to Nola, factors i.e. strength, will determine where Errrrnesto goes! Plus, in Austin, we need RAIN! Our earth is scorched.......
60% OF ALL RESIDENTS ON US COASTLINES VUNERABLE TO HURRICANES ARE UN-PRE-PARED FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE DISASTER? ARE YOU???
F6 (and fellow Austinite) ... I totally agree about this. I'm not buying this "further east" scenario yet. Too much in question. Way too much!
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jasons2k
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I posted this in the main thread but wanted to poast it here for us Texans:
I read this morning from a Pro-Met on another forum:
1) It's hard to trust any of the models b/c none of them have initialized the system well yet.
2) He is very concerned about the ridge weakness forecast next week is being overhyped. He said this there is a good possibility the models are lowering heights over the Eastern US too quickly due to the presence of a cyclone on the GOM. In summary, he said expect the models to trend more westward with time.
Moral of the story - we need to watch this still.
I read this morning from a Pro-Met on another forum:
1) It's hard to trust any of the models b/c none of them have initialized the system well yet.
2) He is very concerned about the ridge weakness forecast next week is being overhyped. He said this there is a good possibility the models are lowering heights over the Eastern US too quickly due to the presence of a cyclone on the GOM. In summary, he said expect the models to trend more westward with time.
Moral of the story - we need to watch this still.
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Steve wrote:... But as for there being "no reason for a storm to go south of a trough", I respectfully disagree. When was the last time you saw a storm in August get picked up by a trof? It doesn't happen too regularly (either Gulf or Atlantic) near or below 25N. Bottom line? Everyone's in play with a big question mark on possible strength.
Steve
You're right Steve. I didn't mean "picked up" by a trough in the October-November recurve sense -- just that anything breaking down the ridge would give a path northeastward, not total recurve like a late season front. Follows that Florida peninsula is pretty much in the clear once ernesto is west of 85W.
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Hey now Texans, let's don't jump the gun just yet. This is Texas By God!! (John Wesley Hardin) 
We have a healthy group of models bending the storm to the east of us. I will not run out to get any supplies unless I see some of the models come back to the west. I hope I don't have to do that. I still have some supplies left over from Chris.LOL!!
The models should get a better feel on what the future holds in the next day or two. Trust me, I am no wishcaster. A hurricane on the southeast, Texas coast would put an arse whoopin' in my line of work. If I'm not putting people to work then I'm not making any money.
If I see a jump in the models tomorrow then I will run out and get a few things.
Jsclitz, let's hope scenario #2 doe not pan out. JB is also leaning pretty hard in this direction.
We have a healthy group of models bending the storm to the east of us. I will not run out to get any supplies unless I see some of the models come back to the west. I hope I don't have to do that. I still have some supplies left over from Chris.LOL!!
The models should get a better feel on what the future holds in the next day or two. Trust me, I am no wishcaster. A hurricane on the southeast, Texas coast would put an arse whoopin' in my line of work. If I'm not putting people to work then I'm not making any money.
If I see a jump in the models tomorrow then I will run out and get a few things.
Jsclitz, let's hope scenario #2 doe not pan out. JB is also leaning pretty hard in this direction.
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CajunMama
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LAStorm01 wrote:The toe of LA got hit, then the heal, now the arch?
The coastal area of the arch of la suffered severe damage from Rita. Towns like Erath, Delcambre, Abbeville were devasted by her storm surge. I'm in southwestern Lafayette parish and the storm surge came within 10 miles from me...and that's not measured by how the crow flies but by roads. I'm not sure how much coastline south central la lost but this area can't afford a storm. Besides we were hit by lilli a few years ago. Doesn't that count?
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gboudx
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jschlitz wrote:I posted this in the main thread but wanted to poast it here for us Texans:
I read this morning from a Pro-Met on another forum:
1) It's hard to trust any of the models b/c none of them have initialized the system well yet.
2) He is very concerned about the ridge weakness forecast next week is being overhyped. He said this there is a good possibility the models are lowering heights over the Eastern US too quickly due to the presence of a cyclone on the GOM. In summary, he said expect the models to trend more westward with time.
Moral of the story - we need to watch this still.
Being you posted the pro-mets opinion here, I assume you consider him/her to be fairly credible. Do you mind continuing to post this pro-mets opinions here on this thread? It will get lost quickly on the other threads, drowning in a sea of amateurs, people I disagree with and hypsters.
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crazycajuncane
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Steve wrote:>>Delcambre
How do y'all say that down there? The Bayou folks pronounce it as Del-cahmb(very slight b sound). I knew a girl with it for her last name which was pronounced as del-cam-bray.
Steve
Yeah it's like Del-cahm maybe a slight b at the end... you got it right on the nose.... I never heard anyone say Del-Cam-Bray.... I would have to laugh. I love when north'ners come down and start calling out last names... it's funny!
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SarahINMobile
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