What I don't understand is why people are hell bent on telling people in Florida that the storm will not go there. I think the the Central Gulf Coast to the panhadle and florida the penninsula has a shot at it too.
Ok this storm is starting to get to me a little bit. Let's look at the 850mb analysis from the Global Models.
CMC - Takes it along Cuba then out and around a ridge and into the N to NE gulf coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
GFS 12Z - Takes it into cuba then to the florida straights nipping the keys and sw florida and then into western florida.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
500mb vorticity takes it very close to cuba then out and around and into western florida.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
MM5FSU 12Z takes it across cube and up into NW florida coast
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation
12Z Nogaps takes it across western Cuba and then up into Florida just above the big bend.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation
18Z Ukmet stops at 48 hours but, it appears as thought it is moving in into central cuba.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
12Z UKmet - Takes it across western cuba and into the Northern Gulf Coast
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
If the Ridge is broken down enough there may be a weakness to send this thing to the west coast of Florida. Although the same equal chance of it going towards the central gulf coast also.
You can see the rigge fairly well on WV imagry as well as the ULL moving westward away from the system.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
200mb Vorticity Shows the trough in the Western States.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html
If the trough Amplifies while it is in the Southeast US causing a stronger front we may see a more Northeasterly turn of the storm in days 4-5.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9kh.gif
Just got the 18Z Vorticity shows mostly likely a much weaker ridge and the system turning Northeast much more quickly than the other models.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
500mb vorticity follows the 850 unlike the last run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
The bottom line is until the model come more in agreement we have little clue as to the future track of this storm. But, I would watch the 500mb ridge forecasts for clues.
Ernesto looking very good tonight and farther north than we may have originally put the system. It also appears to be moving slower than at the 5PM position.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
*edited by Lindaloo to add disclaimer
