What is nogaps up to????

#41 Postby **Windtalker1** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:53 pm

bucman1 wrote:Did he say when that cold front might be arriving?

Local Mets here in Miami say the cold front is unusually strong for this time of year and may make it into the gulf by Tuesday.

Extremeweatherguy · #42 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:54 pm

I just re-read the Houston AFD, and it says the CF is expected to stall to the north of the area. Looks like no cooler weather for me. :roll:

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #43 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:55 pm

That would be a scary scenario especially considerring the strength potential but its just one model run and maybe there was bad data ingested! I aint scared!!! (Yet)

bucman1 · #44 Postby **bucman1** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:56 pm

Extreme, what time was that weather report out of Houston?

Isn't funny how all the local forecasts give a different spin on the same front?

johngaltfla · #45 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:56 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:
bucman1 wrote:Did he say when that cold front might be arriving?
Local Mets here in Miami say the cold front is unusually strong for this time of year and may make it into the gulf by Tuesday.

Do what? None of the Tampa mets projected anything like that.... :eek:

Who in Miami said that please???

Extremeweatherguy · #46 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:58 pm

bucman1 wrote:Extreme, what time was that weather report out of Houston?

Isn't funny how all the local forecasts give a different spin on the same front?

It was written at 2:35pm, and here is the actual quote for anyone interested:

THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE TROF NORTHWARD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY POOL ALONG A COOL
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO N TX MONDAY AND STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

bucman1 · #47 Postby **bucman1** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 10:59 pm

lets see what happens.

Thanks for that info.

#48 Postby **Windtalker1** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:00 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
Windtalker1 wrote:
bucman1 wrote:Did he say when that cold front might be arriving?
Local Mets here in Miami say the cold front is unusually strong for this time of year and may make it into the gulf by Tuesday.

Do what? None of the Tampa mets projected anything like that....

Who in Miami said that please???

WSVN Channel 7

#49 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:02 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
bucman1 wrote:Extreme, what time was that weather report out of Houston?

Isn't funny how all the local forecasts give a different spin on the same front?
It was written at 2:35pm, and here is the actual quote for anyone interested:

THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE TROF NORTHWARD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY POOL ALONG A COOL
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO N TX MONDAY AND STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

That must be the weakness. Even if it stalls just north of the Houston area, that'll create a weakness just to it's east and what ever is in the gulf will likely ride the weakness or just to its east.

Derecho · #50 Postby **Derecho** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:02 pm

NOGAPS can be a very squirrely GOM model - it doesn't like land and the GOM is surrounded by it. It's been not as bad in the last couple of years, but it seems uniquely odd in the GOM - not Canadian model level of ridiculous incompetence, but some strange outlier stuff at times.

StormWarning1 · #51 Postby **StormWarning1** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:14 pm

00Z NOGAPS is out.
Shows a weak system moving over MS/AL border, a shift west from 18Z.

Sorry, no link.

PTPatrick · #52 Postby **PTPatrick** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:14 pm

Shreveport disco said that the cold front was supposed to stall at I-20 per YESTERDAY's guidance, but todays is saying all the way to coast...for what it is worth. Jackson Disco is rather ambivilant on the cold front.

#53 Postby **Windtalker1** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:17 pm

PTPatrick wrote:Shreveport disco said that the cold front was supposed to stall at I-20 per YESTERDAY's guidance, but todays is saying all the way to coast...for what it is worth. Jackson Disco is rather ambivilant on the cold front.

If thats the case...Ernesto will curve into Florida.

Extremeweatherguy · #54 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:21 pm

StormWarning1 wrote:00Z NOGAPS is out.
Shows a weak system moving over MS/AL border, a shift west from 18Z.

Sorry, no link.

great..

I can only imagine what the 5am track might look like. :roll:

PTPatrick · #55 Postby **PTPatrick** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:23 pm

I am going to assume NOGAPS has a weakened system hitting Mobile because often, the thing that turns sorts causes them to weaken. But then, Nogaps really isnt bullish on the system in the first, place, so who knows. Nevertheless, Nogaps seems to be coming in line with the other, at least more so....

PS...these tracks over the MS/AL border, if I had a dime for ever track I saw go over my folks house directly, I would be a rich man(ie with in the years I have seen GFDL model outputs of 3 different Cat 4' go over my childhood home...and it is still scarey to see it.)

clfenwi · #56 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:15 am

00Z Nogaps 144 hours

looks more like Florida panhandle to me.

FWIW, NOGAPS has been doing pretty well so far with this storm. The 24 hour forecast from last night's 00Z run was perfect, 0 nm error. The subsequent 06Z and 12Z runs had 12 hour errors of 8 and 13 nm respectively.

Extremeweatherguy · #57 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:20 am

seems like the models turning this N or NE (GFS, and NOGAPS especially) keep this system weaker, whereas the models that take it more WNW (GFDL especially) keep it stronger. Wonder if that means anything?

What is nogaps up to????

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