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EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
11PM EDT.. FRI AUG 26TH 2006
Tropical Storm Ernesto officially formed at 5pm Friday after being Td #5 for approx. 24 hours.
Ernesto is showing signs of attempting to ramp up and strengthen slowly. Convection is firing around his LLC. although the LLC is sometimes hard to find with the amateur eye.
Worries reign supreme about where everyone believes Ernesto will go. Will it go to a Charley, Rita, Katrina, Wilma ravaged area? It's too early to tell..
Models remain all over the place including a recent NOGAP solution that has it potentially making landfall in the extreme NW peninsula of Fla around Cedar Key.
While I believe a Florida hit is possible. I'm actually not forecasting it currently. My forecast would make some people nervous.
I'm thinking Biloxi area or perhaps even New Orleans. I believe Ernesto will make a trek just barely clipping Jamaica, and then possibly heading North and then NW or even WNW.
This could cause Ernesto to be funneled up through the warmer waters of the GOM. Possibly making a landfall in Mississippi.
Florida is still a 50/50 shot. It'll either go there or not
Seriously.. The storm may still go this way if the ridge protecting the state retrets/weakens, or an approaching front makes a trip down south. This would ensue the "slingshot effect" and send him on an ENE or NE track towards the Sunshine state.
here's my predicted 5 day outlook on Ernesto.
Tonight: Well south of the DR. More slight strengthening. Max winds: 50 mph
Saturday:Approaching Jamaica. Watches and warnings up. Watch for strengthening. Max winds: 65 mph
Sunday:Season's 1st hurricane. Past Jamaica, south of Cuba. Max winds: 80 mph
Monday:Grazing Cuba's tip. Cat 1, maybe even Cat 2. Max winds: 90 mph
Tuesday: Watching patiently in Fla North and points west. Max winds: 100 mph
Track and intensity forecasts are always subject to errors and change, some by as much as 100's of miles. Please do not use this for life or death decisions
