...

[Praxus]

Going to watch CNN news at 6...be interesting to see how this is hyped.

[caneman]

The historical map is crystal clear on the path!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

OK...that map is crystally clearly bad. I just ran a Hurrevac Historical Track scan on tropical storms (since it was most likely one this morning, and was certainly one at your post time)...and came up with entirely different results. This has happened before and I want people to remember to take these wunderground climo maps with a grain of salt.

I only ran August storms within 180 miles (not 500)...and I have many more tropical storms than this (of course...they may only be looking at this date...which would be dumb).

5 go into Mexico
4 TX/LA
0 MS/AL
5 Florida
1 misses everything via Cuba.

Now...how is that for crystal clear?

What is concerning about this if you're a Floridian is that historically tracks across Cuba put Florida in play and a with an overall bias of models being too far left in the Gulf coupled with models shifting right now. Ya gotta be concerned as a Floridian.

[NewOrleans]

Well I would think by the simple fact, Florida has more coastline then any other Gulf coast state, automatically makes Florida a higher probability for a hit, but as far as a specific city/area along the coast, it is exactly the same for any other landfall location. With that said, take it easy and let the experts handle the forecasting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The only chance that FL gets hit is if for some reason a trough comes out of nowhere to steer it that way. Doesn't look too likely IMO.

[Cape Verde]

This is not even in the Gulf yet. Therefore, that is all these are, OPINIONS! To everybody reading this board for information, please keep up with what the Pro Mets here are saying. Stay tuned to your local newstations and the NHC.

Well, I value the Pro Mets opinions very highly, but they were in basic agreement here four hours ago that Ernesto was doing a "Chris II" and was all but done.

They know way more than me, but their opinions are just opinions, too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is not even in the Gulf yet. Therefore, that is all these are, OPINIONS! To everybody reading this board for information, please keep up with what the Pro Mets here are saying. Stay tuned to your local newstations and the NHC.

Well, I value the Pro Mets opinions very highly, but they were in basic agreement here four hours ago that Ernesto was doing a "Chris II" and was all but done.

They know way more than me, but their opinions are just opinions, too.

I don't think I heard the pro mets refer to this as "Chris II". I think that was mostly being said by the non-mets.

[dixiebreeze]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm

all models show at least a cat 1 hurricane

If he gets into the GOM, you can just about bet it will be stronger than a Cat. 1. The GOM is a steam bath right now with temps around 85 degrees.

[Lindaloo]

This is not even in the Gulf yet. Therefore, that is all these are, OPINIONS! To everybody reading this board for information, please keep up with what the Pro Mets here are saying. Stay tuned to your local newstations and the NHC.

Well, I value the Pro Mets opinions very highly, but they were in basic agreement here four hours ago that Ernesto was doing a "Chris II" and was all but done.

They know way more than me, but their opinions are just opinions, too.

Actually, no they are not just opinions! They have earned the right to forecast. That is what they do. I have yet to see one pro met here or anywhere hype anything! Follow my advice and get back on topic.

[Cape Verde]

They're educated opinions. And what's the topic? Someone seems to have eliminated the thread title.

[piggy]

should there not be a pro mets discussion thread, that non-pros can view
but not comment on! There is the NHC , but this is just speculation
site(Storm2k that is) and the users know this!

[gboudx]

Technically there is. It's called the Tropical Analysis Forum.

[Derek Ortt]

go to the analysis forum

only the pros and certain others can start threads, but anyone can reply to keep questions possible