Caribbean Shear..

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#21 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 25, 2006 7:38 am

Intresting you say that Derek, I do think its being sheared but I just can't see any real circulation outside of the convection even on the high resoultion which leads me to think that it is under the convection as there simply isn' much turning in the clouds to suggest that its outside of the convection. Still I respect your a pro met and I'm not and that your probably right but I personally think any center is under the western section of the convection, pretty lop-sided and shear is present.

Shear is very hard to frecast...as you prvoed Derek in Ioke thread. The cor eof it is heading west but Td-5 is heading that way faster.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mvtrucking
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 698
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 am
Location: Monroe,La

#22 Postby mvtrucking » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:05 am

Derek Ortt wrote:center is not underneath the convection

This is a severely sheared depression, which does not appear to be at TS strength based upon the morning loops


Derek,
Do you see it getting ripped apart later today? That shear to its west looks ominous. It may not make it through the day...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5200
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#23 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:06 am

well, maybe you guys are right about the shear thing. It didn't look like shear would be an issue late yesterday afternoon though(when I last looked at it)....

but hey, if this doesn't develop, there's ALOT more moving off Africa that will keep us busy for weeks to come, so no biggie...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#24 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:15 am

Shear is certainly increasing now over it as it moves towards that shear zone and Td-5 is gonig to have a hard time voer the next 24hrs to keep itslef in one part but I don't think it would be wise to pin all our hopes on shear, though we shouldn't stop hoping that shear will give this system a hard time.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1895
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

#25 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:35 am

Derek Ortt wrote:center is not underneath the convection

This is a severely sheared depression, which does not appear to be at TS strength based upon the morning loops



If the LLc is not under the convection than there is not an LLC , I dont see any spin outside te envelope
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#26 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:55 am

and the QS shows that this may be an open wave
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, KeysRedWine, LarryWx and 48 guests