Invest 93C in CPAC

[WindRunner]

Yet another invest for CPAC. Models are all over this one developing into a TS in 48hrs. Of course there isn't much to it right now, but you can see the potential (kind of). The first visibles in a few hours should be more telling.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP932006) ON 20060823 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 1200 060824 0000 060824 1200 060825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 156.3W 11.0N 158.6W 11.5N 160.6W 12.1N 162.2W
BAMM 10.6N 156.3W 11.1N 158.5W 11.5N 160.5W 12.0N 162.1W
LBAR 10.6N 156.3W 10.8N 158.2W 11.0N 160.5W 11.4N 162.3W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 1200 060826 1200 060827 1200 060828 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 163.6W 13.2N 165.3W 14.3N 164.7W 18.1N 164.0W
BAMM 12.6N 163.6W 13.6N 165.5W 14.6N 165.5W 17.5N 165.6W
LBAR 11.7N 163.7W 12.7N 164.3W 13.6N 164.5W 18.6N 167.2W
SHIP 39KTS 49KTS 53KTS 55KTS
DSHP 39KTS 49KTS 53KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 156.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 154.2W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 152.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[WindRunner]

A little synopsys of the CPAC activity as of now.

[WmE]

Thanks for the overview.
Yeah it has some potential.

[WindRunner]

A quick check on 93C this evening shows us a relatively well organized system with a broad LLC and displaced but moderate convection. Nothing ominous in the slightest, but still promising (to an extent) per models. SHIPS forecasts to 57kts by 96hrs at 18Z, though most globals don't even close it off entirely, indicating a relatively weak TS at the absolute most.

[senorpepr]

Well... if this somehow becomes the second tropical storm since 2002... it would be named Kika... which is Hawaiian for Keith.

[WindRunner]

Invest 93C is looking a touch better this evening as convection is flaring into the red colors on AVN for the first time in its existence. LLC is still very prominent on vis imagery, so another quick snapshot view as of 21:30Z:



And 12Z models still develop it, though not as far as previously. Does show TS strength in 24 hours, though that seems unlikely as of now.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP932006) ON 20060824 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060824 1200 060825 0000 060825 1200 060826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 159.7W 10.8N 162.4W 10.9N 165.3W 11.3N 167.7W
BAMM 10.7N 159.7W 10.9N 162.6W 11.3N 165.6W 12.2N 168.0W
LBAR 10.7N 159.7W 10.8N 161.6W 10.9N 163.9W 11.0N 165.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060826 1200 060827 1200 060828 1200 060829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 169.6W 11.9N 172.0W 13.1N 172.2W 15.4N 171.4W
BAMM 13.0N 169.7W 14.8N 170.8W 16.9N 169.5W 19.5N 168.9W
LBAR 9.0N 167.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 45KTS 47KTS 46KTS 40KTS
DSHP 45KTS 47KTS 46KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 159.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 158.1W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 156.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM