If nuetral conditions then why all the shear in Atlantic

[Derek Ortt]

shera in the Atlantic is quite normal, even for this time of year

[willjnewton]

so you are saying that the wind shear in the atlantic ocean is normal for this season am I correct???

[Frank2]

I'm happy that it's quiet - we should all be, considering that if another large hurricane (or two) disrupt Gulf oil production, we'll all be paying - literally, not to mention the human suffering due to Katrina, that is still going on, even today...

Frank

[Cyclenall]

so you are saying that the wind shear in the atlantic ocean is normal for this season am I correct???

Yes, this is normal.

[willjnewton]

okay, thanks

[viking]

It's not the size (or coverage) of the shear that counts. It's the location! (Or so I'm told).

[gatorcane]

Remember Boca the peak of the season is Sept 10, we are still 4 weeks out - I feel strongly that things will pick up between now and then and we will wish for that shear....one thing to start looking at is the TUTT which typically begins to fall apart in mid August.......

I predict things will suddenly pop in the Atlantic, this lull is just teasing us right now...

patience...you'll see.

[Jim Hughes]

shera in the Atlantic is quite normal, even for this time of year

So I am very interested on your take here Derek. Are you saying that this developing El Nino is not going to have an effect upon this tropical season?

Plus have you ever researched SOI extremes with hurricane activity? I know the community only seems to look at SST's and this is why I ask this.

The EPAC SST's usually go hand and hand with certain SOI extremes but there have been exceptions. The recent level of -10.0 has just be reached this week in the 90 day SOI average. This has only occurred twice since the 97-98 event. These were in September of 02' and 04'. The latter , which had been a very active season, quieted down considerably within 3-4 weeks after this level was reached and we know 2002 was much quieter than the other most recent active years.

When one looks back over the Long Paddock monthly data during the past 60 or so years you can see that some other qualifying years were 1940, 41, 65, 72, 77, 93, and 94.

Not all of these years had extreme SST values to go along with these SOI extremes so nobody can say that the warmer SST anomalies were the most important factor here. The common denominator in these different years was the extreme negative SOI.

So I would advise everybody to think about what is going on here. Yes we have a favorable AMO but there is currently a battle going on and the developing El Nino is giving the AMO a run for it's money. Let's see if this recent wave in the SOI weakens. There is a fairly good chance that it might during August. It would be very hard for the atmosphere to sustain this kind of wave for any length of time at this time of the year.

[MGC]

What was it 2004 I think, ULL every where. Then boom, conditions turn favorable and then Charley, Francis, Ivan and Jeanne.......MGC

[Jim Hughes]

What was it 2004 I think, ULL every where. Then boom, conditions turn favorable and then Charley, Francis, Ivan and Jeanne.......MGC

2004 ended on a quiet note. Only four systems formed after September 19th and only one of them became a hurricane. That was Lisa and she only reached the category 1 level.

[mempho]

Yeh, it's not yet time to for a "season cancel" yet. Remember, Katrina didn't hit until the end of August...and if it had only ended there. Save Dennis, the big action last year (for the US) didn't start until the last week of August and we all know how nasty it got for the next few weeks.

[weatherwindow]

I think just like hurricanetrack said on the SOI thread that this year is acting alot like a El nino year. Because of the neg numbers. Overall I think a el nino will really form later this year. I expect maybe 3 or 4 hurricanes but I think my 15 is in trouble.

...agreed with respect to shear...however what is confusing is that there hasnt been a significant shift of convection east to the dateline which leads me to believe that the eastern leg of the hadley cell remains far enough west to avoid large scale subsidence in the mdr. perhaps, the tutt argument hold more water(pun intended). that said, some teleconnection may exist.....rich

[jasons2k]

Plus have you ever researched SOI extremes with hurricane activity? I know the community only seems to look at SST's and this is why I ask this.

I really don't think that is correct. Maybe some amateurs but certainly not the pros.

[Lindaloo]

Not me...

It figures.

[Jim Hughes]

Plus have you ever researched SOI extremes with hurricane activity? I know the community only seems to look at SST's and this is why I ask this.

I really don't think that is correct. Maybe some amateurs but certainly not the pros.

I am not sure what what you are saying here jschlitz in reference to my question or comments to Derek.

Are you trying to say that it's only the amateur's who look at just the SST's and the meteorological community looks at other things besides the SST's in regards to the "ENSO effect" ?

NOAA's updated ATL outlook today would shoot that down. They obviously have no respect for the moderate-strong SOI trend the past 90 days.

[Dean4Storms]

Shear has not been the only boogieman. We've had higher than average pressures especially across the Carib. and a strong SAL from a strong persistant Azores High.