Mets or anyone else help me what this is?

[Trugunzn]

Help explaining what this is? Does have any effect on tropical activity. It looks like green its more favorable for cyclones and brown its the opposite. When Chris first emerge it was in green and then as soon the brown moved east slowed down chris. Looks like the green lines are moving back west towards the Atlantic.

[Brent]

That the MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation). Wet MJO(the green) is more favorable for tropical cyclone activity.

[Trugunzn]

U think this is part of the reason for Chris weaking

[vacanechaser]

it is a map that depicts the MJO, or Madden julien oscilation.... the green shows positive areas for development... in other words, upward motion... the brown is negative for developemnt, or downward motion.... right now, just the eastern atlantic is in positive or upward motion..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
hurricane Intercept Research Team

[willjnewton]

is the dry air and the wind shear in the tropical atlantic becoming more favorable for cyclone development as well???

[vacanechaser]

U think this is part of the reason for Chris weaking

i dont think so... if i remember correctly, once something develops, it should maintain...

chris likely weakened due to upper level shear... it is caught between to upper lows and they pulled it apart

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Trugunzn]

thanks for the help!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yup. Also as September gets closer the the main event looks to shift to Flordia and the East Coast.

[Wthrman13]

Well, be careful. It's not JUST showing the effects of a possible MJO, but also whatever other oscillations/large scale circulations are contributing to the divergence/convergence anomalies.

[x-y-no]

Also, keep in mind that the effect of the MJO on tropical cyclones is not well established, particularly in the Atlantic basin.

It's more of an hypothesis right now, rather than a theory.

[MWatkins]

Help explaining what this is? Does have any effect on tropical activity. It looks like green its more favorable for cyclones and brown its the opposite. When Chris first emerge it was in green and then as soon the brown moved east slowed down chris. Looks like the green lines are moving back west towards the Atlantic.

This is analysis of the amount of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)...which is a fancy way of saying this is a satellite estimate of how much heat is getting radiated back into the atmosphere.

Clouds insulate the earth, as we know. Cloudless winter nights let heat radiate out into space all night. Cloudy nights retain heat, keeping the lower atmosphere warmer for example.

So, if there are more clouds present in the tropical atmosphere, the less longwave radiation is making it into space.

More clouds means more convection...so measuring the difference between the normal amount of OLR and the actual OLR...the areas where there are more thinderstorms present are thought to be convectively enhanced by the "MJO"...and the relatively less coudy areas are convectively less active.

These anoms typically move left to right across the map with a cycle of 20 to 30 days...but it doesn't always work that way.

Also, keep in mind that the effect of the MJO on tropical cyclones is not well established, particularly in the Atlantic basin.

It's more of an hypothesis right now, rather than a theory.

I completely agree with Jan here on this...sometimes it's hard to tell if the convection is the chicken or the egg...

MW