Can Chris be a hurricane by 11am?

Extremeweatherguy · #21 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:11 am

I agree. Chris is a hurricane in my eyes too.

Josephine96 · #22 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:12 am

Well then if we have a hurricane @ 11am ya all can say I called it :lol:

j/k

#23 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:12 am

most likely they will state this in the discussion: Chris could be a hurricane, however we will wait until recon confirms it. The windspeed has been increased to 70 MPH...IMHO that is probably close to what they will put...

cheezyWXguy · #24 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:14 am

So now its 70mph?

#25 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:15 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:So now its 70mph?

no...still 65

Josephine96 · #26 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:15 am

It's not officially 70.. that's what we are thinking. Also.. that statement sounds right.. Probably will wait for a recon fix to make it a hurricane.. :wink:

#27 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:21 am

Recon is a good bet to confirm. Remember, there are several very good radars that can follow the LLC in this part of the basin. If an eye becomes evident on San Juan Radar for example, upgrade would be feasible.

clfenwi · #28 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:29 am

WindRunner wrote:
clfenwi wrote:0 chance as recon has departed the storm and the satellite estimates are in from the agencies.

Outside chance of it happening at the 2 PM intermediate advisory if the storm were to strengthen steadily between now and then (recon will probably have time to squeeze in a pass before the advisory is due).

5 PM is the earliest time I would consider probable.

My thoughts as well, though I have a feeling that recon will not be able to make a pass for the 2pm advisory, as that would really mean they need to make a pass by 1:30, which won't happen. And even if recon did get in there by that time and found a cane, they'd probably do another full adviosry for it.

If recon takes off at the same time they did yesterday (or same relative time they did early this morning... within 10 minutes past 1:00) they would have just enough time to catch a set of obs from the northeast quadrant. During the flight last night, the vortex message was at NHC in time for the 2 AM advisory. The storm will be a little bit closer to St Croix than it was this morning (I'm figuring about 115 nautical miles from the runway to the center). Fairly easy to get there before 2 PM provided that they launch somewhat on time.

Oh, and I forgot an alternative scenario for a 2 PM upgrade... Dvorak rating of 4.0 from two of the three agencies.

HurricaneGirl · #29 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:50 am

Looking like a minimal cat 1 to me.. ( :eek:

H.C.

)

#30 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:50 am

HurricaneGirl wrote:Looking like a minimal cat 1 to me.. ( H.C. )

It's not the same... you can't abreviate it.

HurricaneGirl · #31 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:35 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
HurricaneGirl wrote:Looking like a minimal cat 1 to me.. ( H.C. )

It's not the same... you can't abreviate it.

Holy Crap!! :eek:

cheezyWXguy · #32 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:38 am

Hurricane Chris
Holy Crap

Can Chris be a hurricane by 11am?

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