Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

[hial2]

Didn't know where to place this so here it is. If you look to the northeast of Puerto Rico you can see a blop that looks like a missile. Thought it was cool looking.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Sorry..Bad taste comment written by me without thinking...

[Rieyeuxs]

Stupid Question Alert here.

In reading Monday's NHC discussion:

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO E TEXAS
ALONG 33N80W 34N85W 32N91W 32N98W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW S OF THE FRONT DUE TO RIDGING. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 91W-98W. AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 80W-87W. WLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W. A COL IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N87W. SLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 86W DUE TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 87W. EXPECT... SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

What does SLY, WLY, and COL stand for? I'm sure they're something obviously simple, but for some reason, my brain can't translate the abbrievations tonight.

Thanks!

[T-man]

Try southerly, westerly, and cut off low (I think).

[SouthFloridawx]

Try southerly, westerly, and cut off low (I think).

I think that is right.

[Rieyeuxs]

Thanks T-Man. I knew it had to be something easy. My brain just wasn't in gear.

[SouthFloridawx]

Towards the end of the 18Z GFS spins up a new area of low pressure just to the SE of the Cape Verde Islands. I'll be interested to see if this feature is depicted on the 00Z or any of the other models. I guess what I should be eluding to is if the Azores high is not as powerful as in recent weeks we may see some of these waves coming off of Africa developing.

18Z GFS 850mb Vorticity
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


12Z CMC shows nothing closed but, is hinting at the same area of Vorticity in the lower levels.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


12Z UKMET shows even less vorticity than the CMC or GFS but, same general Idea.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation


Either of the sites I went to had the nogaps out that far.

[MiamiensisWx]

The latest (18Z) GFS run shows some potential signs of development down the road. Over the past several runs, including in the 18Z, it has consistently been depicting a possible developing low originating off the African coastline and potential developing slightly further into a possible tropical system/tropical cyclone due to more favorable upper-level support and more favorable shear/mid-level moisture conditions.

18Z GFS loop

With the synoptics possibly favoring a more favorable environment down the road, with lower pressures and more favorable lower shear and convergence, possible development down the road - especially off the Bahamas and in the Caribbean and elsewhere, and possibly from a wave system/low of African origin - may need to be watched.

Although the deepening intensity of the low may be an error in depiction by the GFS, a possible new tropical system down the road may need to be watched.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Ya know I didn't even look at the long range until now...

[SouthFloridawx]

I hope that doesn't verify.

[boca]

Actually you do want it to verify because according to that track it would be north of the islands and turn north east od the bahamas thus = fish. As you know the models like you said underestimate the ridge and trend west so lets see what the 00 GFS says.

[SouthFloridawx]

Actually you do want it to verify because according to that track it would be north of the islands and turn north east od the bahamas thus = fish. As you know the models like you said underestimate the ridge and trend west so lets see what the 00 GFS says.

But, as we all know that the Gobal models don't do well with the ridge and usually underestimate it. As far as what your saying... your right... I would want to see that verify and become fishy.

[deltadog03]

Stupid Question Alert here.

In reading Monday's NHC discussion:

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO E TEXAS
ALONG 33N80W 34N85W 32N91W 32N98W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW S OF THE FRONT DUE TO RIDGING. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 91W-98W. AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 80W-87W. WLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W. A COL IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N87W. SLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 86W DUE TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 87W. EXPECT... SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

What does SLY, WLY, and COL stand for? I'm sure they're something obviously simple, but for some reason, my brain can't translate the abbrievations tonight.

Thanks!

SLY is Southerly.....WLY is westerly.....and COL is when you are btwn a High and a Low. They are common when you get trof splits...

[boca]

Deltadog03 I think you are correct on the COL thing.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS continually developing an area of low pressure near the cape verde islands and moving it west.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

CMC also showing a lot of vorticity near the cape verdes at the end of it's run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET showing the same type of thing at the end of it's run also.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

MM5FSU - (not to be confused with the supre ensamble)
This model is much like the GFS.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

[HurricaneHunter914]

Interesting how more and more models are catching on to a possible low pressure system. Something else to watch while 98L and the Lesser Antilles wave are churning in the Tropics.