12Z and 18Z NAM - GOM Trouble?

[ronjon]

Both NAM model runs develop a LLC off the coast of NW Cuba and run it N-NW into the eastern GOM by Friday. There is heavy convection over eastern Cuba at this time. So far, no other models have latched on to it. It'll be interesting to see if any other models pick this up the next few days.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HurricaneHunter914]

That heavy convection over Cuba I think are Tstorms that developed earlier and are now moving offshore. Usually those storms disappate, but maybe something may come from it.

[Dean4Storms]

We sure could use the rain here in the Panhandle.

[Dean4Storms]

ETA..............


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

ETA..............


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

ETA = NAM

they are the same model.

[Dean4Storms]

ETA..............


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

ETA = NAM

they are the same model.

Yea I know, just giving a different link for those with problems running that other page. But thanks though.

[WxGuy1]

ETA..............


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

ETA = NAM

they are the same model.

Nope. The NAM changed from the ETA model to the WRF-NMM model. There is no ETA now. The WRF-NMM that NCEP runs is known as the NAM (which, again, used to be the ETA). The NAM is just the label for any model that NCEP runs in that particular timeslot; it used to be the ETA, but, since mid June, it's the WRF-NMM. The only ETA output you'll find is if someone shows the WSETA (Workstation ETA), but you probably won't find that anywhere. All popular sites (RAP/UCAR, CoD, OU, NCEP, etc) show the NAM-WRFNMM.

EDIT: I should clarify... The ETA is being run on coarse-resolution for the time being in order to continue to produce ETA-MOS numbers, since the WRF-MOS has proven to be inferior.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So if the WRF-MOS is inferior why did they move to it from the ETA?

[WxGuy1]

So if the WRF-MOS is inferior why did they move to it from the ETA?

The MOS (Model Output Statistics) is trained... In other words, it "learns" to correct various forecast elements based on a sort of pattern and bias recognition. That's one of the primary reasons that the NGM-MOS is still around (though, IIRC, it's going to be retired soon). The model output on the whole (e.g. graphics you see online) is largely better with the WRF than the ETA (less diffusion/smoothing, different initialization package, etc).

See http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/wrfmoseval.htm for verification stats/graphics.

See http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/NAMWRF_short/index.htm for a presentation on some differences between the ETA and WRF-NMM that is used in the NAM.

[Opal storm]

We sure could use the rain here in the Panhandle.

Yes we are the driest part of FL right now.Most of the drought in south/central Florida was relieved by Alberto,we have not seen any relief.But there is an increase chance of rain coming later this week.

[SouthFloridawx]

We sure could use the rain here in the Panhandle.

Yes we are the driest part of FL right now.Most of the drought in south/central Florida was relieved by Alberto,we have not seen any relief.But there is an increase chance of rain coming later this week.

I wouldn't exactly call it relief as we haven't recieved a lot of rain after or before that. We are still showing negative rainfall estimates between 8-9 inches below normal.

[Alacane2]

I wouldn't exactly call it relief as we haven't recieved a lot of rain after or before that. We are still showing negative rainfall estimates between 8-9 inches below normal.

I wish we were only 8 to 9 inches below normal. Mobile is currently running a deficit of 20.10 inches since January, and Pensacola is running a deficit of 17.73 inches.

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldn't exactly call it relief as we haven't recieved a lot of rain after or before that. We are still showing negative rainfall estimates between 8-9 inches below normal.

I wish we were only 8 to 9 inches below normal. Mobile is currently running a deficit of 20.10 inches since January, and Pensacola is running a deficit of 17.73 inches.

Either way we are all way below normal and need a good bit of rain to catch up. Let's just hope it's not all at once.

[skysummit]

Since Jan 1, 2005, we're 21.49" below normal....that's counting in Hurricane Cindy and Katrina! I guess that's why we're at the severe level. I don't ever remember seeing cracks this large before.

[Huckster]

Since Jan 1, 2005, we're 21.49" below normal....that's counting in Hurricane Cindy and Katrina! I guess that's why we're at the severe level. I don't ever remember seeing cracks this large before.

Since January 1, 2006, Baton Rouge is over 21.00 inches below normal.

[skysummit]

Since Jan 1, 2005, we're 21.49" below normal....that's counting in Hurricane Cindy and Katrina! I guess that's why we're at the severe level. I don't ever remember seeing cracks this large before.

Since January 1, 2006, Baton Rouge is over 21.00 inches below normal.

Where do you get this from? From the Advocate:
“Even though you had two inches of rain, Baton Rouge still has 12.32 inches of rain deficit for the year,” Shields said.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/2720766.html?showAll=y

[WxGuy1]

Since Jan 1, 2005, we're 21.49" below normal....that's counting in Hurricane Cindy and Katrina! I guess that's why we're at the severe level. I don't ever remember seeing cracks this large before.

Since January 1, 2006, Baton Rouge is over 21.00 inches below normal.

Where do you get this from? From the Advocate:
“Even though you had two inches of rain, Baton Rouge still has 12.32 inches of rain deficit for the year,” Shields said.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/2720766.html?showAll=y

Per the NWS, Baton Rouge Airport is 21.10" below average. See http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=0&max=10

[BayouVenteux]

Since Jan 1, 2005, we're 21.49" below normal....that's counting in Hurricane Cindy and Katrina! I guess that's why we're at the severe level. I don't ever remember seeing cracks this large before.

Since January 1, 2006, Baton Rouge is over 21.00 inches below normal.

Where do you get this from? From the Advocate:
“Even though you had two inches of rain, Baton Rouge still has 12.32 inches of rain deficit for the year,” Shields said.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/2720766.html?showAll=y

Check your dateline on that story, Sky...it's from May 1st.
As you know the last 2 months around have been drier than a well crafted martini.

[skysummit]

Since Jan 1, 2005, we're 21.49" below normal....that's counting in Hurricane Cindy and Katrina! I guess that's why we're at the severe level. I don't ever remember seeing cracks this large before.

Since January 1, 2006, Baton Rouge is over 21.00 inches below normal.

Where do you get this from? From the Advocate:
“Even though you had two inches of rain, Baton Rouge still has 12.32 inches of rain deficit for the year,” Shields said.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/2720766.html?showAll=y

Check your dateline on that story, Sky...it's from May 1st.
As you know the last 2 months around have been drier than a well crafted martini.

Oh goodness...I stand corrected! LOL Hey....while typing this, I believe I just witnessed a Blue Jay spontaneously combust!

To stay on topic.....how much larger does the GFS predict the cracks in the ground to become? LOL

[bigmoney755]

I'm not sure about the gulf, but 18z NAM is showing a tropical system moving towards the virgin islands and dominican republic at 84 hours. 12z GFS and 12z NAM has also been showing this. It might be worth watching over the next couple of days.