97E Invest at EPAC

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cycloneye
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97E Invest at EPAC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 02, 2006 4:46 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

The wet MJO is causing the Pacific to be very active from the WPAC to the EPAC.Now we have this new invest which is behind 96E system.
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#2 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jul 02, 2006 4:49 pm

Looks pretty good, appears to have a nice L/MLC.

Image
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 02, 2006 6:03 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 022221
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 02, 2006 8:27 pm

Take at the lower coulds thats a LLC.
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 02, 2006 10:52 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 030318
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING WESTWARD.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#6 Postby clfenwi » Mon Jul 03, 2006 11:18 am

from 1605Z TWD

LOW PRES NEAR 13N119W 1009 MB CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE AS IT
PROGRESSES W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS ORIENTATED NE TO SW FROM 18N117W TO
8N123W. MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270 DEG AT 12 KT FOR THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL SWIRLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPIN OFF
TO THE W AND NW AND THEN ANOTHER LOW LEVEL SWIRL DEVELOPS NEAR
THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
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#7 Postby clfenwi » Mon Jul 03, 2006 11:23 am

Image

A visible shot of the EastPac with the two invests
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#8 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 04, 2006 12:22 am

Looking at the last visible images, it looks like the low has taken off to the northwest...putting itself on the wrong side of the 26° C line...

0605Z TWD comments

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N120W AND MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.
A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N120W. THE LOW IS ATTACHED TO A WELL-
DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHING FROM 19N119W TO 9N120W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 04, 2006 12:25 am

Rip. What a borning season this has been. :cry:
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 04, 2006 12:30 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Rip. What a borning season this has been. :cry:


Climatologically speaking, last year it was an average season and by this time we were already talking about TS Dora. This year, so far, TS Aletta.
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#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 04, 2006 12:45 am

Yeah in a weak depression to with it.
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#12 Postby P.K. » Tue Jul 04, 2006 4:28 am

AXPZ20 KNHC 040925
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N121W MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KT.
THE LOW IS ATTACHED TO A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHING
FROM THE ITCZ NWD TO 20N. NEITHER THE LOW NOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
ARE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
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