Atlantic ITCZ

[AussieMark]

Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (<1000 km [600 mi] or so) of the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before reaching the Caribbean. (That would be my definition, there may be others.) Typically, this may occur in August and September, but in rare years (like 1995) there may be some in late July and/or early October. The numbers range from none up to around five per year - with an average of around 2.

by that definition I don't think Irene was a Cape Verde hurricane as she never gained Tropical Storm Status till around 45W

[Audrey2Katrina]

From the NHC-TPC:

HURRICANE IRENE WAS A LONG-LIVED CAPE VERDE TROPICAL CYCLONE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/tws/MIATWSAT_aug.shtml

All the semantics aside... she WAS a Cape Verde system... unless you care to take it up with the NHC... That said... I think more active CV seasons have been kinder to us than the inactive one than last year was--in fact I KNOW they're better than what last year was.

A2K

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the NHC-TPC:

HURRICANE IRENE WAS A LONG-LIVED CAPE VERDE TROPICAL CYCLONE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/tws/MIATWSAT_aug.shtml

All the semantics aside... she WAS a Cape Verde system... unless you care to take it up with the NHC... That said... I think more active CV seasons have been kinder to us than the inactive one than last year was--in fact I KNOW they're better than what last year was.

A2K

that's unless the Bermuda high is far west during the peak of the season. In that case, a 2004-like scenario could be in the works.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Unquestionably. A lot depends on where that Bermuda ridge decides to settle in.

A2K

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now the high reminds me of the 2004 season.

[windycity]

i agree. This past winter, the set up was very simular to 04. The persistant high was a regular feature,and after 04 we all know what that can mean for certein areas. Things can change, and where the high dominates this summer is everyones guess.

[Cyclenall]

From the NHC-TPC:

HURRICANE IRENE WAS A LONG-LIVED CAPE VERDE TROPICAL CYCLONE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/tws/MIATWSAT_aug.shtml

All the semantics aside... she WAS a Cape Verde system... unless you care to take it up with the NHC... That said... I think more active CV seasons have been kinder to us than the inactive one than last year was--in fact I KNOW they're better than what last year was.

A2K

I thought for a while last year that CV hurricanes would be less bad then homegrown hurricanes but then I knew how wrong I was now that I know more about hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones. The reason for this is because it wouldn't matter in the end due to how warm the GOM is this year. That is for this year though and this doesn't account for Eastern Seaboard hurricanes. But this is what I think, it's the same.

Right now the high reminds me of the 2004 season.

If I was to say a forecast as what the 2006 hurricane season will be like I would say a mixture of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. I came to that 3 months ago. This season will have 2005's early start and 2004's CV hurricanes. Homegrown systems will still be present this year I think.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That was what I was thinking earlier this year a 2004/2005 season. A season with alot of cape verdes with long trackers like Ivan,frances,karl but with katrina's and wilma like storms. I dont't know about the number more like 2004.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What else blows me away is that there is hardly any sal in the caribbean or western Atlatnic. In only the eastern Atlatnic has it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... kAsal.html

[cycloneye]

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N11W 10N20W 10N30W 8N36W 8N38W 10N48W 10N53W 10N57W
10N63W.

The above is from the 8 AM Discussion.The ITCZ this morning has climbed to the 10n latitud line.

[bvigal]

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N11W 10N20W 10N30W 8N36W 8N38W 10N48W 10N53W 10N57W
10N63W.

The above is from the 8 AM Discussion.The ITCZ this morning has climbed to the 10n latitud line.

Good morning, Luis! What a change in the last 10 days, huh???

[cycloneye]

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N11W 10N20W 10N30W 8N36W 8N38W 10N48W 10N53W 10N57W
10N63W.

The above is from the 8 AM Discussion.The ITCZ this morning has climbed to the 10n latitud line.

Good morning, Luis! What a change in the last 10 days, huh???

Good Morning my friend. Yes,this is a big change of the axis from being southward than normal,to a more normal position now.

[Aquawind]

Nothing special.. here is the latest..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... itcz.shtml

The African section of the ITCZ remains slightly below normal in the west, and slightly above normal in the east. During the period from June 11 - 20 2006, the ITCZ was located near 15.0 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15W-35E and over the ten day period. This compares with a position last dekad of around 14.48N, a position last year of around 15.98N, and a 1988-2005 climatological mean of 15.2N. Therefore, the current ITCZ is located ~0.52 degrees north of it position last dekad, but ~0.98 degrees south of last year, and ~0.78 degrees south of normal. See figure 1. In the western areas (10W-10E), the ITCZ moved approximately 0.2 degrees north during the current dekad, and is currently located near 15.8N compared with a normal location of 16.3N. In the east (from 20E-35E), the ITCZ moved around 1.0 degree to the north during the past dekad, and is located near 14.4N compared with the normal location of 13.9N.

Although the ITCZ looks very inactive over Africa.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG

[bvigal]

Check out this visible loop!!!

7.3N 40W and 9N 34W

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=7&lon=-38&width=800&height=600&zoom=1&info=vis&type=Animation&quality=100&numframes=12

[cycloneye]

OVERALL ITCZ CONVECTION IS QUITE WEAK OWING TO A
STRONGLY NEGATIVE (SINKING) PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION.


Above is from the discussion at 8 Pm about the ITCZ and the MJO being dry or not favorable.But when the MJO flips to wet watch out and that may occur after mid July.See MJO thread for more details.

[Aquawind]

Near Normal..a tiny bit below.. tiny.

The African section of the ITCZ is near normal over all, but is slightly below normal in Niger and Mali. During the period from June 21 - 30 2006, the ITCZ was located near 15.36 degrees north latitude when averaged from 15W-35E and over the ten day period. This compares with a position last dekad of around 15.0N, a position last year of around 15.89N, and a 1988-2005 climatological mean of 15.79N. Therefore, the current ITCZ is located ~0.36 degrees north of it position last dekad, but ~0.53 degrees south of last year, and ~0.43 degrees south of normal. See figure 1. In the western areas (10W-10E), the ITCZ moved only slightly north during the current dekad, and is currently located near 16.1N compared with a normal location of 16.8N. In the east (from 20E-35E), the ITCZ did not move and remained near 14.4 degrees, which is near normal

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... itcz.shtml