I just thought of something about the 2005 Atlantic season

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bevgo
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#21 Postby bevgo » Wed Jun 28, 2006 9:16 am

bigmoney755 wrote:Well I think we need a landfalling cat 5 bad. It's been way too long. Katrina had a perfect oppurtunity with 175mph winds and 12 hours till landfall and it just fell apart at the finish line. If we can get a 200mph hurricane 6 hours prior to landfall then surely it could withstand the rapid weakening that will occur. I'm not wishing a cat 5 on anyone, but people just have a careless attitude about hurricanes and we need a wakeup call. Katrina was the warning shot. I have my sights on Isaac. I'm thinking he will come with hell, fire, and brimstone.


I really hope you do not mean that! Katrina, Rita, Wilma were enough of a wake up call. To wish for a cat 5 as a wake-up call is to wish for major destruction and many deaths and losses. I for one, hope this does not happen. Why would you hope for this? You say you are not wishing a cat 5 on anyone, but that is exactly what you are doing. Think! Each person this affects is someones mother, father, brother, sister..... and then the tax $$$$ that will be needed to pick up the pieces............
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#22 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jun 28, 2006 9:21 am

bigmoney755 wrote:Well I think we need a landfalling cat 5 bad. It's been way too long. Katrina had a perfect oppurtunity with 175mph winds and 12 hours till landfall and it just fell apart at the finish line. If we can get a 200mph hurricane 6 hours prior to landfall then surely it could withstand the rapid weakening that will occur. I'm not wishing a cat 5 on anyone, but people just have a careless attitude about hurricanes and we need a wakeup call. Katrina was the warning shot. I have my sights on Isaac. I'm thinking he will come with hell, fire, and brimstone.


That's okay I don't think we need that type of wake up call. Believe me Katrina and Rita were more than enough.
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#23 Postby f5 » Wed Jun 28, 2006 11:57 am

Katrina&Rita were fighting NGOM dry air as usual
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#24 Postby wxwatcher91 » Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:15 pm

there also was a lot of discussion on whether or not Katrina was going through an ERC at landfall. some claims have been made that she even had 3 eyewalls.

As already said in this thread, strong hurricanes cant hold their intensity for a long time because the upper air environment is never going to be perfect, and then of course there is the ERC. category5 hurricanes usually reach their peak away from land because it is relying on the deep, warm waters for its intensity. then before it can make landfall, it weakens since it cant maintain that intensity.

there have also been many threads since Katrina about eyewalls and such. Im not going to take a stance on it. As I believe Derek Ortt said in one thread, people will fly to the ERC explanation whenever a strong hurricane weakens, sometimes they are right, but most of the time it is shear, or dry air, or colder SSTs.
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#25 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:16 pm

Imagine if katrina and rita didnt weaken, the kind of destruction a 175mph cat 5 hurricane could produce on a major city like NO
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#26 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:35 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:October is the peak month for the Caribbean and is still the heart of the hurricane season. August and September are usually down times for the Caribbean

Many years have seen little Caribbean activity in August and September (1995, 1998, 1999, etc) yet ahve produced late season monsters

I don't think that's really true. October can't be the peak month for the Caribbean, there aren't very many monsters during that time. Wilma, Mitch and Lenny are the only ones I can think of. August and September are down times for the Caribbean? I don't think so!! There should be equal amounts of storms in all areas during that time (Never the case though in 1 season alone). Just my take on that.
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#27 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:48 pm

Dead wrong

October is the peak time for the Caribbean because the EPAC monsoon trough dangles back into the region.

The Caribbean is bimodal, featuring early season and late seasons torms, with a relative lull

Also, need to recheck those late season majors... the following are October cat 2's or higher since 1995

1995: Roxanne
1996: Lili
1998: Mitch
1999: Lenny
2000: Keith
2001: Iris, Michelle
2002: Another Lili
2005: Wilma, Beta

October is the month for the Caribbean. This part of the basin does not follow the same pattern as the rest of the basin
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#28 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Jun 28, 2006 2:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Dead wrong

October is the peak time for the Caribbean because the EPAC monsoon trough dangles back into the region.

The Caribbean is bimodal, featuring early season and late seasons torms, with a relative lull

Also, need to recheck those late season majors... the following are October cat 2's or higher since 1995

1995: Roxanne
1996: Lili
1998: Mitch
1999: Lenny
2000: Keith
2001: Iris, Michelle
2002: Another Lili
2005: Wilma, Beta

October is the month for the Caribbean. This part of the basin does not follow the same pattern as the rest of the basin


Also, Hurricane Hattie in 1961. Hattie is the latest forming Category 5 in the Atlantic.
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#29 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Dead wrong

October is the peak time for the Caribbean because the EPAC monsoon trough dangles back into the region.

The Caribbean is bimodal, featuring early season and late seasons torms, with a relative lull

Also, need to recheck those late season majors... the following are October cat 2's or higher since 1995

1995: Roxanne
1996: Lili
1998: Mitch
1999: Lenny
2000: Keith
2001: Iris, Michelle
2002: Another Lili
2005: Wilma, Beta

October is the month for the Caribbean. This part of the basin does not follow the same pattern as the rest of the basin

Your using category 2 hurricanes and higher for your statements, I'm using CAT4 and CAT5 hurricanes only.
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Derek Ortt

#30 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:15 pm

even still...


you left out Keith, Michelle, and Iris, all of which were cat 4's in the NW Carib in October. Also, they all formed in or very near the Caribbean, unlike storms like Ivan and Gilbert, which formed well out in the Atlantic
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#31 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:39 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:even still...


you left out Keith, Michelle, and Iris, all of which were cat 4's in the NW Carib in October. Also, they all formed in or very near the Caribbean, unlike storms like Ivan and Gilbert, which formed well out in the Atlantic

Hmm...I will give this some thought. BTW, Gilbert was huge in size, did you see that one picture from the huge archive? Here it is:

Link: ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b ... E-7-IR.jpg

That's Hurricane Gilbert a peak strength! He looks bigger then Wilma did!
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