WPAC - Tropical Storm 03W - Sat Pics, Models and Discussion

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WPAC - Tropical Storm 03W - Sat Pics, Models and Discussion

#1 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 26, 2006 10:28 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Image

Image

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WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 16.7N 115.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 115.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.2N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.7N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.9N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.1N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.9N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 115.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//

NNNN
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#2 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 26, 2006 10:32 pm

urrent Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 JUN 2006 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 16:57:00 N Lon : 115:12:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9

Eye Temp : -72.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
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#3 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:33 am

And boy does this system look good! Its been awhile since we've seen a good organized system (Alberto IMO didn't impress me with its organization).
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#4 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jun 27, 2006 9:04 am

There's already a thread on this storm. Look at the TS Jelawat thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86000
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