What to expect from Invest, TD, or TS in Florida

[weatherbee1982]

Invest 91L does not even look like it warrants any attention anymore. There is little convective activity during the convective maximum. My feeling is that there will be no recon flight tomorrow and that this system will slip from being an invest to just being a mention as an ULL with little convection to go with it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree...Its time to start watching the system at 25/65. I blown this forecast but who has not.

[Rainband]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[fci]

I agree...Its time to start watching the system at 25/65. I blown this forecast but who has not.

uw, uw; I did not blow it this time.
Not often can I say I nailed it but this one looked pathetic to me.

Let's just hope that it is a harbinger of a season where Florida dodges the bullets!

Avoided crow for once.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I agree...Its time to start watching the system at 25/65. I blown this forecast but who has not.

uw, uw; I did not blow it this time.
Not often can I say I nailed it but this one looked pathetic to me.

Let's just hope that it is a harbinger of a season where Florida dodges the bullets!

Avoided crow for once.

tired of eating crow?????????????

[Dean4Storms]

I have not posted harly a thing on this system NE of the Bahamas for simply one reason, it ain't happening!

[x-y-no]

Looking at this morning's upper air soundings, it looks like the GFS has a pretty good handle on the initial conditions. I'm inclined to go with the GFS solution carrying this into SFL as a very weak low which then tracks north up the peninsula.

I expect metropolitan SFL will be getting some good rain this afternoon as the NW flow from this circulation converges with the sea breeze. Tomorrow should be fairly moist for much of the peninsula. But I don't see this taking on any tropical characteristics, let alone developing significantly.


EDIT: In saying "into SFL" I'm being very general ... it's more probable that "central Florida" would be the accurate description, but it's such a broad disorganized low that either one will serve.

[MWatkins]

This is one of those cases where I was hoping my thoughts were way off...the dang instability associated with the broad low is raining out my quickly arranged Orlando weekend at Universal...and POPS look high enough to ruin Sunday as well.

I just hope it rains early enough to keep everyone a it home instead of driving them into the indoor attractions like today.

Gotta take the fellas to Twister after all, just don't want to wait 100 mins in line to do so.

Getting back on topic...even if the tropical aspect of development is gone -there will be enough thermodynamic support to kick off all sorts of slow moving thunderstorms across Florida after the sun comes up Sunday.

Also off topic I feel horrible about missing the SFL get together today...the timing couldnt worked out worse for me and I appologize to everyone who atteneded...hopefully we can arrange somthing else soon...as 51 weeks out of the year I am around on Saturdays.

MW

[fci]

I agree...Its time to start watching the system at 25/65. I blown this forecast but who has not.

uw, uw; I did not blow it this time.
Not often can I say I nailed it but this one looked pathetic to me.

Let's just hope that it is a harbinger of a season where Florida dodges the bullets!

Avoided crow for once.

tired of eating crow?????????????

Oh I have eaten my share of crow!
Thanks for asking!!!!

[Nimbus]

Tampa radar is showing quite a few pops this morning. Almost looks like some of the energy is rolling into the gulf, however that is probably just a reflection of the upper low.

[caneman]

ONe of the buoys on the East coast of FLorida is reporting near 30 mph sustained winds. Should be pretty breezy in SE Florida today

[Recurve]

Strong thunderstorms in the Keys today, rotating in from NW. Woke to loud thunder and rain this morning, the strongest cells have moved off the upper Keys (strong cells still over and near the lower Keys), steady rain now with less thunder.

Sorry for those whose Sunday is ruined by rain, but its pretty welcome here. This should get us back onto almost normal precip; I'm sure Key West's deficit (went without rain almost from Wilma to this month) is rapidly being erased.

[hurricanefloyd5]

the center is off the cape's coast

[HurricaneQueen]

We are getting ready to get blitzed here in SW FL. Areas just north of here are already getting it. Radar shows very heavy showers approaching from the north after a rather nice day here earlier. Between yesterdays downpours , today's and the promise of tomorrow's, we should be on average for this time of year rainfall wise. The winds are beginning to howl so it might be a good time to get offline.

[HurricaneGirl]

I just drove back from Blackshear Georgia and went through a couple really bad cells... raining so hard I couldn't see and saw an SUV flipped over on the ramp from I-295 to I-10. I stopped but some other people had already gotten the driver out of the vehicle and were waiting for police and ambulance to get there.