Low Pressure Center over Belize

[rockyman]

A surface low appears to have developed on the coast of Belize (extreme southwest Gulf of Honduras). Pressue is down to around 1007mb:

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78584.html

and Belize City is reporting WSW winds (fairly light).

Convection has fired up intermittently throughout the day near the center.

Low Level Vorticity is increasing in the area:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Wind shear is fairly strong from the NW:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Of course, the system is overland (but so was Alberto before it reformed over the Gulf of Honduras)

[cycloneye]

Ok rockyman,after looking at the other Caribbean thread it is a different location so this thread can remain open.

[Aquawind]

I am thinking WSW is a possible outflow boundry from convection. The winds have been ~SE..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

Belize data

[mvtrucking]

A surface low appears to have developed on the coast of Belize (extreme southwest Gulf of Honduras). Pressue is down to around 1007mb:

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78584.html

and Belize City is reporting WSW winds (fairly light).

Convection has fired up intermittently throughout the day near the center.

Low Level Vorticity is increasing in the area:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Wind shear is fairly strong from the NW:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Of course, the system is overland (but so was Alberto before it reformed over the Gulf of Honduras)

Rockyman,
Is that 30 kts shear NW of Belize? (And 20 kts directly over it?) Not sure if I'm reading it correctly?

[rockyman]

To figure out the shear over a particular area, look at the lines on either side of that area...and the shear is between those 2 values...the 30knot+ shear is on NE tip of the Yucatan...the rest of the Yucatan is under 20 knot shear...Belize is in between 10 and 20 knots of shear.


Edit: mvtrucking...now that you mention it, my "center" is right on the 10knot line...so shear might not be that high over this area. Thanks!

[Epsilon_Fan]

which way is this supposed to go? If it can get into the Caribbean and survive the shear it could develop (like there's not enough to look at right now!)

[HURAKAN]

WELCOME TO THE HURRICANE SEASON. MANY WILL TRY, FEW WILL DEVELOP!!!

[rockyman]

The vortex seems to be centered over the far western part of the Gulf of Honduras this morning...Anyone else care to have a look?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[Thunder44]

I see some turning down there in the clouds. But it seems mostly in the upper and mid-levels so far.

[x-y-no]

I can't make out what the surface winds are doing, but that's a pretty nice convection flareup today.

Upper air conditions are very hostile to the north, but not bad at all over the flareup. if this can sustain itself through tonight then it might have a chance to do something. Would be interesting, since none of the models sniffed out anything of the sort.

I'd say chances are pretty marginal, though. Best shot would probably be if it stays in more or less the same area for a day or two, giving the upper-air conditions time to ease a bit to the north.

[rockyman]

There is some low-level convergence and upper-level divergence right over this area:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[Recurve]

Rockyman, can you explain the values on the convergence chart? Am I right that convergence is air masses/winds coming together, which can produce lift and convection? Thanks.

[rockyman]

Convergence Map: Here's a good link to information about convergence.

http://tinyurl.com/s3ds9

[Recurve]

Thanks. Glad to see my ol' school (UIUC) has a good whether education site. I've referred to that one before.
Still wondering though about what the values "5" or "-5" refer to on the convergence chart. 5 knots? 5 MB pressure difference?

[clfenwi]

Thanks. Glad to see my ol' school (UIUC) has a good whether education site. I've referred to that one before.
Still wondering though about what the values "5" or "-5" refer to on the convergence chart. 5 knots? 5 MB pressure difference?

The units are s^-1 (i.e per second) and I think 10^-5 is assumed, so a value of 5 would be divergence of 5 * 10^-5 per second and a -5 would be a convergence of the same amount. See the AMS glossary entry for divergence for gory details.