91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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sponger
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#481 Postby sponger » Sat Jun 24, 2006 5:09 pm

Should be a fun flight out of Jacksonville tomorrow. Maybe I'll skip brakfast.
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mvtrucking
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#482 Postby mvtrucking » Sat Jun 24, 2006 5:15 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:There is likely a very broad low just off the surface or maybe some what on the surface at 27/77. Which a MLC is just to the northeast of there. The Upper level low is arond 26 north/76 west which is very close to the LLC. Which is drawing in dry air=keeping convection from forming over the weak LLC. Maybe if that mlc to the northeast can keep getting closer to it. But the chances even if it did become a depression of the nhc upgrading it is about 1 percent.


I need to study more, because I'm not sure how you all make out the difference(LLC, MLC ULL)? I see the center of some type of spin at the 27/77 area just off the coast of Florida on IR.
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#483 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 24, 2006 5:18 pm

You can clearly make out the ULL on water vapor. Then you can make out a LLC on looking at the lower level cloud field...And a MLC by looking at the mid level and high level clouds on Ir/visible. Also surface obs is another way you can pick out a LLC.
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Evil Jeremy
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#484 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Jun 24, 2006 5:20 pm

As "Matt" said, the ULL is visible on the water vapor sat. the storm is trying to form before it makes landfall. Also on thewater vapor sat, you can see a increase convection around the new center.
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#485 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 24, 2006 5:25 pm

Looks like this thing may be coming back quickly! It also looks further SW:

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tgenius
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#486 Postby tgenius » Sat Jun 24, 2006 5:34 pm

Is it possible the recon flights that were cancelled will be put back on?
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Opal storm

#487 Postby Opal storm » Sat Jun 24, 2006 5:34 pm

I think it has missed it's window of opportunity to be anything more than what it is already.Just looks like squally weather for FL and GA.
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mvtrucking
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#488 Postby mvtrucking » Sat Jun 24, 2006 5:40 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:You can clearly make out the ULL on water vapor. Then you can make out a LLC on looking at the lower level cloud field...And a MLC by looking at the mid level and high level clouds on Ir/visible. Also surface obs is another way you can pick out a LLC.


Thank you Matt, that helps. (Also to EvilJ)
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