5-30 kts of shear over parts of the gom.
You can see the 1014mb low currently over texas
but, it may soon move over into the open waeters of the Gulf Of Mexico.
Lot's of flooding in texas right now.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191546
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1046 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
.UPDATE...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS`S FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND THIS EVENT IS
NOT OVER YET! NEARLY STATIONARY MCV TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
HOUSTON AREA RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST IN A LONG LINE OF FLOOD
EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THAT HAPPENS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ARE NOW FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF GALVESTON COUNTY...GALVESTON
BAY AND OFF THE COAST AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. THESE RAINS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WERE FOUND OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN 8 AND 11
INCHES IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD ACROSS BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EASILY BEING
REACHED. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERNED
ABOUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS
EARLY AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BIG CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MIGHT
FALL AROUND AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
OUR FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES
ALREADY IN THE WATCH AND ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FURTHER OFF TO THE
WEST. FIRST GUESSES ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 5 TO 10 INCH TOTALS WITH
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER
TONIGHT. THESE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SERIOUS FLOODING!
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006)
DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LIBERTY
AND EASTERN HARRIS AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES WITH MAX SIX HOUR TOTALS
IN THE 3-7 INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA. NEEDLESS TO SAY FLOODING
IS LIKELY OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE AS THE TSTM CLUSTER IS
BACK-BUILDING WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW SHIFT SOUTHWARD. HAVE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 PM FOR THE SAME
AREA AS IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WHICH
APPEARS TO BE BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT...ROUGHLY
CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF OF LIBERTY COUNTY. HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE LATEST GFS WHICH SHOWS A VERY SLOW TRACK
TO THE SW...BACK OVER THE CWA TODAY AND POSITIONED ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS TRACK WILL LIKELY
BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND FIRST
INLAND TIER COUNTIES. WE WILL LIKELY NEED THE WATCH TO GO
THROUGH MON NIGHT AS WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RAINFALL
TONIGHT AS TO WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING...JUST SHIFTED A
LITTLE SW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT SEE HOW THE LOW MOVES TODAY AND
MAKE THAT DECISION. CURRENT THINKING IS AN ADDITIONAL 5-7 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN ISOLATED AREAS...AT LEAST SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE ON TAP MON NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS
IS A SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT FOR SE AREAS OF SE TX FOR THE NEXT 30
HOURS...MUCH LIKE A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS LATER THIS WEEK. 33
