Independent WX due out with their seasonal look tomorrow...

[Steve]

They didn't do so hot the last couple of years, but they've been pretty good in the past with specific storms and seasonal outlines. Let's see if Caneman, Tropical Weather Watcher and Kevin (if he's still with 'em) come up with anything unusual this year. They research trends at length, and sometimes those pay off.

Check 'em out at independentwx.com

Steve

[BayouVenteux]

It's up on the site now. Other than the possibilities for our neighbors to the west, I hope this forecast holds true as far as our neck of the woods (or water) is concerned -- sorry Texas, but the consensus seems to continue to build regarding this being a potentially bad year for you -- they're calling for a very strong ridge to dominate through the heart of the season, effectively blocking the north central Gulf Coast from tropical troubles. Can't say what that means for my water and electricity bills, but considering the alternative -- and how much the region needs a break to further recover -- who's complaining?

http://www.independentwx.com/2006

postscript: an interesting write-up at the beginning re. the change in forecast methodology to improve upon their 2005 forecast's shortcomings.

[terstorm1012]

Kudos for them, as they wrote that up in a fashion so that I understood every word. We'll see if it verifies.

[Opal storm]

Well I hope that ridge stays over us through the whole season but I have my doubts.How do they know that ridge isn't going to break down by the time Aug or Sept comes around.I really don't think the central Gulf coast is going to get slammed like last year,but personally I think they are going out on a limb by saying little or no tropical activity for the north central Gulf for the whole season.

[BayouVenteux]

Well I hope that ridge stays over us through the whole season but I have my doubts.How do they know that ridge isn't going to break down by the time Aug or Sept comes around.I really don't think the central Gulf coast is going to get slammed like last year,but personally I think they are going out on a limb by saying little or no tropical activity for the north central Gulf for the whole season.

Well, the limb broke and fell hard last year with regard to Louisiana, but they seem to indicate an increased confidence in their revamped methodology. We shall see.

[jasons2k]

Like I've said, I don't think anyone should be making plans based on these forecasts - BUT - I will say that this forecast is very well-written, easy to understand, and the science makes sense. Now we'll see if the science plays by the rules.

Side note: I really thought what they said the 1954 analog and the Northeast is interesting - obviously a pointed remark to a certain private weather provider...

[terstorm1012]

on reading it again, this is a great write-up (not for what it entails of course). They ought to be commended for putting the science into real world terms that are easy to understand. Also I forget who else on this board said it (was it x-y-no in one of the El Nino threads?) , but they did note a strong Central US Ridge and a trough over the NE this summer, and there are some real world indications as such. The trough up here has been so persistant, I can't remember when there wasn't one!