How likely is it for the Bermuda High to actually move east?

#21 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue May 30, 2006 10:14 am

I personally think there is going to be a lot more Northerly movement this year, as opposed to the generally Westerly movement we have seen the last couple of years. Hopefully this will lead to many recurves away from main land North America. :bday:

#22 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue May 30, 2006 10:17 am

Here are two good examples of the type of season I'm expecting this year. Though I hope even further offshore with the mean tracks.

#23 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue May 30, 2006 10:18 am

CHRISTY · #24 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 30, 2006 10:51 am

These are the type of tracks i think we might see in 2006....

#25 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue May 30, 2006 10:52 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Here are two good examples of the type of season I'm expecting this year. Though I hope even further offshore with the mean tracks.

Exactly, keep the storms away from anybody :lol:

MJA · #26 Postby **MJA** » Tue May 30, 2006 11:10 am

CHRISTY wrote:These are the type of tracks i think we might see in 2006....

Christy, living in Mobile, I am curious as to why you think this? That would make for an interesting season.

#27 Postby **tgenius** » Tue May 30, 2006 11:16 am

See.. this to me is fantastic, I created this thread with an honest question, great answers and discussions from everyone, and we don't even HAVE a storm to talk about yet.. I'm glad I found this place!

#28 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue May 30, 2006 11:40 am

I still think with the combination of a Negative NAO and weak La Nina/Neutral conditions we are more likely to see a season like 1996 or 1999, rather than 2004 or 2005.

#29 Postby **tgenius** » Tue May 30, 2006 11:42 am

If it's like 99, I don't really like that scenario too much, Irene (I believe) deluged Miami with SERIOUS flooding...

CHRISTY · #30 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 30, 2006 11:44 am

Bill gray was asked what season track wise reminds you of 2006?his responce was it might look like something in between 2004 and 2005....so we will see if his thinking has changed tomorrow in his update.cant wait! :wink:

Opal storm · #31 Postby **Opal storm** » Tue May 30, 2006 11:47 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:I still think with the combination of a Negative NAO and weak La Nina/Neutral conditions we are more likely to see a season like 1996 or 1999, rather than 2004 or 2005.

A season like 1996 or 1999 would be great news for the Northern Gulf states.But I really don't think this season will be all east coast/fish storms.I have to agree with Christy im thinking more like 2004.

#32 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue May 30, 2006 11:49 am

Professor Gray also thought that 1997 would be an active year, and we all know how that worked out. While I do have great respect for the man and his work, he is capable of making mistakes. We will see though :wink:

CHRISTY · #33 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 30, 2006 11:55 am

my opinion is we have entered a new era of more intence hurricanes and more frequent lanfalls on the US.!So i think this active period will be probably be around for another 10-15 years.PS!iam not saying every season will very active but when we do have one we are gonna see damage like we have never seen before in the US. storms like katrina and rita is only a sign of things to come.(Major hurricanes to me are on the up swing.)

PS!REMEMBER IT ONLY TAKES ONE....

#34 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue May 30, 2006 11:59 am

For sure. No question that is happening due, at least in part, to the North Atlantic Multi Decadinal Oscillation.

#35 Postby **terstorm1012** » Tue May 30, 2006 1:40 pm

I also am leaning toward 1999.

The trough in the northeastern states has been quite persistant and is forecast to come back this week. The humid-heat this week up this way is only temporary.

Extremeweatherguy · #36 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue May 30, 2006 2:57 pm

A 1947-like season would be bad for Houston, let's hope this doesn't play out.

#37 Postby **tailgater** » Tue May 30, 2006 9:15 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
Hope this set-up does stay long for Texas and Mexico's sake.

How likely is it for the Bermuda High to actually move east?

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