GFS shows development over Yucatan

[Ivanhater]

Yes. I know it is far out but it does show up and is something to talk about for a while

[jimvb]

This was pointed out in another thread - GFS - early season storm. My reply to that was:

"This still says the potential for such a storm will be there. The seas are warm enough for it. There could be a storm 16 days out as the model says, or it could be 14 days, or 18 or 20 or 10 days from now, or it could hit the Gulf Coast, or it could hit Cuba or go fish, or it could vanish in future runs and possibly other storms take its place. But the fact that GFS would indicate a storm says that in two weeks the tropics will be ready."

I checked the 12Z run. The storm is still there, but much less in extent and farther east - no longer a threat to Florida. I also see the lashing tongue of the ITCZ coming out of Africa's face spewing out a storm that starts to head towards Florida.

This does not mean necessarily that these storms will occur. What it does mean is that two weeks from now, the tropics will be ready.

[Camille_2_Katrina]

YIKES ! !
IN THE GOM!!

are any othre models making anything of this?

[Ivanhater]

looks like the new run keeps it weak and moves the energy north towards Louisiana

[T-man]

We could use the rain. We can also use some lawn mowers. The size of some of the weeds in the devastated areas of metro New Orleans are phenomenal considering the lack of rain we have had. These overgrown areas harbor pests that are well known disease carriers.

[BayouVenteux]

looks like the new run keeps it weak and moves the energy north towards Louisiana

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_p06_324m.gif

+324 hrs. is maximum "Voodoo Land" (credit Birmingham, AL wxman James Spann for that phrase as it relates to the GFS), but two things are apparent on that graphic: 1.) climatology is beginning to play a role in the look of the future runs, meaning it's getting near the time of year that, based on past experience, you look for features in the western Caribbean and Gulf that preclude potential development, and 2.) down there off the southwestern coast of Mexico is a flashing neon sign that says "hola!"...the EPAC will soon be open for business.

[CHRISTY]

looks like the new run keeps it weak and moves the energy north towards Louisiana

Look at the two HIGH'S in the the atlantic.....Hopefully that kind of set up wont be around come hurricane season. which is only a few weeks away.

[CHRISTY]

looks like the new run keeps it weak and moves the energy north towards Louisiana

Look at the two HIGH'S in the the atlantic.....Hopefully that kind of set up wont be around come hurricane season. which is only a few weeks away.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If this storm did form it would probably curve into the Florida peninsula...and lucky me; I will happen to be in Florida at the time.

[Scorpion]

Well wouldn't that be interesting...seeing a TS in May?

[HurricaneHunter914]

<Well wouldn't that be interesting...seeing a TS in May?>

A May tropical storm would be like finding a rare fossil, suprising, a May hurricane is like finding one hundred $100 bills, exciting, a May major hurricane is like winning the $100 million dollar lottery, UNBELEIVABLE.

[SCMedic]

<Well wouldn't that be interesting...seeing a TS in May?>

A May tropical storm would be like finding a rare fossil, suprising, a May hurricane is like finding one hundred $100 bills, exciting, a May major hurricane is like winning the $100 million dollar lottery, UNBELEIVABLE.

That was a little overdone don't you think...You could have just said it was rare..

[HurricaneHunter914]

I was expressing how I would feel if any of the above formed. Is there a problem with that?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I believe there have been about 14 named storms in the month of May since records began.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would wait about 200 hours before jumping on this.

[Camille_2_Katrina]

well... the water temps are warm enough...
we need a break here! Are any of the models showing
anything brewing?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember this is the Gfs at over 372 hours. It always doe's this.

[Camille_2_Katrina]

Remember this is the Gfs at over 372 hours. It always doe's this.

so you don't think this has a chance?
that would be GREAT news!

[Rainband]

there is already a thread on this that was started earlier. Therefore this one is being locked