After Katrina.. what Gulf or Atlantic city do..

[Derek Ortt]

http://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/ ... 106683.htm

this is all that is there for now, until the AMS makes the ppts available with the audio, hopefully within the next couple of weeks or so

ET may have started just ebfore landfall, but the reanalysis showed that it was still a major hurricane. Very similar to Michael where CHC concluded that it was a hurricane at landfall, and became ET about an hour after crossing the coast. The 1938 hurricane, upon the reanalysis was declared ET about 4 hours after landfall

[Air Force Met]

http://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_106683.htm

this is all that is there for now, until the AMS makes the ppts available with the audio, hopefully within the next couple of weeks or so

ET may have started just ebfore landfall, but the reanalysis showed that it was still a major hurricane. Very similar to Michael where CHC concluded that it was a hurricane at landfall, and became ET about an hour after crossing the coast. The 1938 hurricane, upon the reanalysis was declared ET about 4 hours after landfall

I would love to read it and look at the reanal data. Michael is a good example. It was still a TC...but it had begun the transition...the wind field had begun to expand...and a lot of its deepening was credited to baroclinic forcing. I think the transiton must have begun before...yes...it was still a hurricane but the transition had already begun...that takes a longer time to accomplish than just 4 hours I would think.

I would assume the reason the surge values were lower by 5' on the southern shore of Long Island than they should have been is that weakening wind field.

[Derek Ortt]

one thing that was not presented at Monterrey was the RMW information. I wonder if LI got a lower surge than expected because the RMW was east of LI (LI likely received cat 1 winds as the cat 3 winds were in Rhode Island). if so, it does make surge forecasts for the NE much mroe tricky

[Air Force Met]

one thing that was not presented at Monterrey was the RMW information. I wonder if LI got a lower surge than expected because the RMW was east of LI (LI likely received cat 1 winds as the cat 3 winds were in Rhode Island). if so, it does make surge forecasts for the NE much mroe tricky

There was a paper back in the 50's that dealt with the RMW. It had it out east of there...about 50nm out.

Surge: Even in RI it was about 4' lower than projected. It was higher than forecasted in Conn. though. Of course, one of the big problems in the 1938 storm was the astronomical high tide and it came in on high tide. That added almost 5' in some locations in Conn...and another 2.5' in RI...

Any thoughts on why the large surge happens on teh backside so long after the passage of the storm? the 16-17' in NW LI happened 5 hours after landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

Not sure why the highest surge would be 5 hours after landfall. I could see 1-2 hours once we get a prolonged northern flow acorss LI Sound, which is very shallow, but by 5 hours, the storm was more than 200 miles away. Unless the then ET system expanded that much on its southern side, I am not entirely sure

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I say NYC hands down. Nobody takes hurricanes seriously up in this general area. I also think Boston could be damaged by a bad 'Cane, but is no where near as vulnerable as NYC (higher elevations in that city, and a more protected bay).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Really (some here say) cat 3, or higher, hurricanes can't hit New England LOL:

http://www.geo.brown.edu/georesearch/es ... cotash.htm