SW Indian Ocean: Moderate TS Elia

[P.K.]

Upgraded.

GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/04/2006
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 89.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING
UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.


GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM
THE
CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 00 UTC:
13.6S / 88.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 12 UTC:
14.2S / 86.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM ELIA GETS SLOWLY ORGANIZED, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN
THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY
SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY.=

[P.K.]

BULLETIN DU 13 AVRIL A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ELIA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 995 HPA.
POSITION LE 13 AVRIL A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 13.2 SUD / 89.3 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3655 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 3 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.4S/87.7E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.3S/84.8E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 17S/82E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE DEMAIN MATIN A 04H30.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ELIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.3S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.2S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.6S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.8S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 88.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN SPEED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT HAS MOD-
ERATELY INCREASED IN ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DEEP-
ENING AND MOVING EASTWARD, POLEWARD OF TC 22S. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGIN TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS, WHICH WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.

NOTHING NEW ABOUT ELIA. A FISH IN ATLANTIC TERMS AND WILL REMAIN UNDER SUCH STATUS FOR THE REST OF ITS LIFE!

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

NOW ELIA LOOKS A LOT NICER THAN BEFORE!!!

[P.K.]

WTIO20 FMEE 140607
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2006 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 88.2E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 18 UTC:
15.3S / 87.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 06 UTC:
16.3S / 86.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE
GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING
LIGHTLY.

[HURAKAN]

14/0830 UTC 14.3S 88.5E T3.0/3.0 ELIA -- South Indian Ocean

GETTING STRONGER!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Has some good convection in the center. This thing could have a SMALL chance at becoming a cane.

[P.K.]

Extratropical in 72 hours.

BULLETIN DU 14 AVRIL A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ELIA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 987 HPA.
POSITION LE 14 AVRIL A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 14.9 SUD / 87.9 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3450 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST A 7 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 17.1S/86.1E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.2S/84.1E
DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 25S/84E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN A 04H30

[P.K.]

BULLETIN DU 15 AVRIL A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ELIA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 994 HPA.
POSITION LE 15 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 15.0 SUD / 86.2 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3275 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

SE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 15.6S/83.8E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.

[P.K.]

No change.

WTIO20 FMEE 151806
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/04/2006
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 84.9E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM
RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.7S / 83.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 18 UTC:
17.5S / 82.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEYOND 48 HOURS.
THE LLCC IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION.=

[P.K.]

Downgraded.

WTIO20 FMEE 160607
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/04/2006 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 (EX-ELIA) 999 HPA
POSITION: 17.4S / 83.4E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 18 UTC:
19.0S / 82.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2006/04/17 AT 06 UTC:
20.8S / 81.1E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 577
WTIO20 FMEE 161204
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/04/2006
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 (EX-ELIA) 1000 HPA
POSITION: 17.8S / 82.7E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING
UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 N
M
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/04/17 AT 00 UTC:
19.0S / 81.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING.
24H, VALID 2006/04/17 AT 12 UTC:
20.5S / 80.0E, DISSIPATED.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.
.
NNNN