Reassuring and disturbing.

[OuterBanker]

If you read the US land falling probability project you can see just how minuscule the chances are of getting a hurricane in one particular area. This has been updated with Grays 2006 data. You can see the percentages of each region and sub region. The highest regions in percentages are 1 (Tx), 6 (se Fla) and 8 (Carolinas). i.e I live in zone 8e, a relatively low percentage of IH winds and IH vicinity. The disturbing part that it is three times the average (in parenthesis).

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

Interactive is easy, just zoom until you reach your county, click the i icon then click your county name. Region appears, your county is sub region.

Table breaks it down even further, but you have to have Excel to read.

[BayouVenteux]

It will be very interesting to see what the probability numbers –– and where the "hot" regions –– will be in the Gray/Klotzbach group's upcoming new landfall prediction scheme, as mentioned in their April 4 forecast...

7.2 Forthcoming Revised Landfall Prediction Scheme

We have recently been investigating the potential predictability of steering current patterns likely to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. No individual or group can accurately predict exactly where or when a particular storm will make landfall months in advance; however, we have found that using a combination of our NTC forecast and several April-May steering current predictors, we can improve our landfall probability scheme considerably. We are currently working on documentation of this revised landfall prediction scheme, and it will debut with our 31 May update of the 2006 hurricane forecast.