October Surprise?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Are these updated?

[CHRISTY]

i think weather we la nina or el nino florida and the US will be in this active period!you can just turn it off like a switch !fase it people we are in this active period of hurricanes and it will likely be around for a while.

[CrazyC83]

I doubt people in the Pacific would be too happy about El Nino though - that seriously boosts Pacific tropical cyclones...

[SouthFloridawx]

Are these updated?

It's from here

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

[HurricaneHunter914]

But not many cyclones hit East Pacific coast countries.

[Hyperstorm]

El Nino does not have anything to do with landfalls, so the talk about landfalls is non-relevant. El Nino in October will only create more shear and storminess in the Western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico which could steer those systems that do manage to form northeastward, thus threatening the Florida peninsula if they form in the Western Caribbean. We can't be assured that an El Nino in October will mean a non-landfalling late season. We need to be alert even in El Nino months.

[Derek Ortt]

the WC of the Peninsula is considered to be a part of the EC for historical purposes. All of the Peninsula and the rest of the EC are counted together

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

I for one wouldn't mind seeing an October 06 El Nino Surprise. Last year's October Surprise was a bomb.

[weatherwindow]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml



At least this model for ENSO the POAMA forecasts El Nino to wake up by October as you can see at link above.However other models dont have this solution and are staying Neutral or Weak La Nina.Let's wait and see in reallity what will occur in the next few months with those waters in the Equatorial Pacific.

....good morning, my friend:)...my money is on a significant cool episode persisting thru december. as we have discussed, at least some of the aussie models appear to have a warm bias. ......rich

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml



Here are the rest of the models in the March update which show neutral conditions and they say there about the warm bias of the POAMA model.

["Ice"]

October........ is Season.

October however is the end of the season, and is not when the GOM is threatened.

Hurricane Opal was in the first week of October.(I forgot the date!!)

[brunota2003]

October........ is Season.

October however is the end of the season, and is not when the GOM is threatened.

how can you say that? did last year teach you nothing? we had storms making landfall in November, which is technically the end of the season, but no matter what time of year it is, no where is safe...except maybe Nome, Alaska...and even I'm beginning to wonder how long that is going to last...
EDIT: Also, Stan was in October and was a GOM hurricane that killed...what?...2000 right?

[SouthFloridawx]

October........ is Season.

October however is the end of the season, and is not when the GOM is threatened.

how can you say that? did last year teach you nothing? we had storms making landfall in November, which is technically the end of the season, but no matter what time of year it is, no where is safe...except maybe Nome, Alaska...and even I'm beginning to wonder how long that is going to last...

I never know when a storm is going to smack nebraska.

[AussieMark]

But not many cyclones hit East Pacific coast countries.

In El Nino years they do

in 1997 Hurricane Pauline killed at least 230 (Reuters reported that the Red Cross estimated the death toll at 400, but this has been disputed by Mexican officials.) when she made landfall on the south coast of Mexico she dumped inches and inches of rain upon the area. Acapulco was hardest hit

Pauline made landfall as a 115 kt hurricane

Acapulco: 16.2"
Rio Verde: 13.8"
Las Vigas: 11.9"
Cruz Grande: 9.1"
Juchitan: 9.1"
Coyuca: 8.2"
J. Del Marques: 6.5"
Ixtepec: 6.3"
Las Pilas: 6.3"
Cuajinicuilapa: 5.0"



Rick made landfall as a 75 kt hurricane

Rick would strike the region a month later



also lets not forget Hurricane Kenna of 2002

Kenna made landfall as a 120 kt hurricane


these are the 2 more recent El Nino Hurricane seasons

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Don't forget this El Nino season!

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml



Flipping between Neutral and Weak La Nina is what this latest update from the Australians say at link above.

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

Well the POAMA model continues it's bias toward el nino by october.

[benny]

CFS still says neutral coolish:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... SSTSea.gif

For those that are interested in the specific details.. IRI says not much chance of anything but neutral:
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... pdate.html

Here is a table of their models:
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... table.html

Note that most are not skillful (can't beat ENSO Cliper)

[Audrey2Katrina]

The folks that live in the Gulf Coast deserve a BIG break so if El Nino comes I will be happy.

ROGER THAT!

A2K

[CHRISTY]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

Well the POAMA model continues it's bias toward el nino by october.

dont see it happening...wellll maybe come to think about it,nahhhhhh it wont happen.