I like this better then our "Florida System"

Weatherfreak000 · #1 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 7:24 am

That's a pretty nice looking wave coming off of Africa, also I believe there is moisture, low dust levels and lessening shear ahead of it.

You know you guys that Florida system would actually you know, need convection like THIS to form right? 8-)

Anyway, not like I think this is gonna develop but i'd rather put my money on a well structured wave then a florida "cut-off" system.

weatherwoman132 · #2 Postby **weatherwoman132** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 7:28 am

lol. nice catch.

Weatherfreak000 · #3 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:17 am

Still looking nice, every six hours is awesome lol :lol:

weatherwoman132 · #4 Postby **weatherwoman132** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:18 am

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:19 am

I think it may be a bit South but who knows. It does look pretty nice.

weatherwoman132 · #6 Postby **weatherwoman132** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:24 am

isnt it warm down there?

Weatherfreak000 · #7 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:33 am

OH MY GOD, Alberto the Cat 5 is coming and it's heading straight for MIAMI!!!!!!

:lol:

But seriously, yeah. When it was in Africa is was further North but the convection reformed to the south so it probably is too Southern now. But who knows.

NONAME · #8 Postby **NONAME** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:47 am

Um offseason Not going to devlop out there wait till at least the end of july to worry about the eastern atlantic

Weatherfreak000 · #9 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 8:57 am

NONAME wrote:Um offseason Not going to devlop out there wait till at least the end of july to worry about the eastern atlantic

Right on cue, :lol:

benny · #10 Postby **benny** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 9:55 am

those waves/troughs just don't have enough spin/vorticity to them this time of year to really do anything. the low-level environment just is not very cyclonic enough... nice to look at though. anytime i see nice blobs of convection n of 10n over w africa this early in the year.. that's a sign to me that the w african monsoon is becoming active. that's a good thing if you like storms..

as soon as we start to see the sw flow in the low-levels begin streaming into sw africa n of 10n.. then it's on...

#11 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 10:28 am

those waves/troughs just don't have enough spin/vorticity to them this time of year to really do anything. the low-level environment just is not very cyclonic enough... nice to look at though. anytime i see nice blobs of convection n of 10n over w africa this early in the year.. that's a sign to me that the w african monsoon is becoming active. that's a good thing if you like storms.. as soon as we start to see the sw flow in the low-levels begin streaming into sw africa n of 10n.. then it's on...

Hmmmm....we go through this every year. Last year, in particular, there were periods in March where there was plenty of "abnormal" convection off Africa and look what happened later - a nearly nonexistent Cape Verde Season.

#12 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 10:38 am

That is the second nice looking Wave that has rolled off Africa in the last few days though 8-)

Impressive.

benny · #13 Postby **benny** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 10:45 am

I wasn't referring to the number of systems in the East Atlantic. I was referring to an active season everywhere. I really don't know of any predictors that can forecast where the storms will form. Also.. I think that last year was so active it was tough to say that there wasn't a Cape Verde season. Let me explain...

At least 15 systems developed from tropical waves.. that's amazing. Maybe 20 of them. It was almost like the season was just shifted westward... Dennis and Emily were the two big ones in July and true low-latitude hurricanes.. but after that they struggled mightily. Cape Verde season is when I start thinking that systems start forming from waves in the tropical Atlc or E Caribbean.. not necessarily the location. That's just me though.. I thought Cape Verde was called that way cuz that's where they came from (as waves, not necessarily TCs). It was interesting how most systems struggled e of 40w. Now 1983.. that's a year without a Cape Verde season. 1997 only had 1 in the deep tropics. 2002 somehow squeezed out Lili and Isidore. In any event... all my post suggested was an active African monsoon is a signal of favorable conditions for large scale convection in the Atlantic basin.. which favors low-latitude TC development. Now exactly where... the science just isn't there yet!!!

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 11:11 am

I wasn't referring to the number of systems in the East Atlantic. I was referring to an active season everywhere. I really don't know of any predictors that can forecast where the storms will form. Also.. I think that last year was so active it was tough to say that there wasn't a Cape Verde season. Let me explain...

At least 15 systems developed from tropical waves.. that's amazing. Maybe 20 of them. It was almost like the season was just shifted westward... Dennis and Emily were the two big ones in July and true low-latitude hurricanes.. but after that they struggled mightily. Cape Verde season is when I start thinking that systems start forming from waves in the tropical Atlc or E Caribbean.. not necessarily the location. That's just me though.. I thought Cape Verde was called that way cuz that's where they came from (as waves, not necessarily TCs). It was interesting how most systems struggled e of 40w. Now 1983.. that's a year without a Cape Verde season. 1997 only had 1 in the deep tropics. 2002 somehow squeezed out Lili and Isidore. In any event... all my post suggested was an active African monsoon is a signal of favorable conditions for large scale convection in the Atlantic basin.. which favors low-latitude TC development. Now exactly where... the science just isn't there yet!!!

good points. You are right, 2005 saw many weak tropical waves that originated in Africa that waited to develop until getting fairly far west. I classify a CV storm as one that forms in the East Atlantic.

Weatherfreak000 · #15 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:04 pm

bust hahaha :lol:

benny · #16 Postby **benny** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 5:01 pm

the 12z gfs does spin up a weak low that is near 5n46w on fri... for what it's worth. actually the upper environment isn't so bad.. it is the low-level stuff that i think is holding it back (plus the initial puniness of the system)

as mentioned on other threads.. a huge 200 mb ridge is forming in the central tropical atlc this week.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

that is pretty rare in early april

#17 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 5:49 pm

the water is warm down there! it has to be a little more south to escape the shear. theres also some more convection comong off the coast right now!!!

Weatherfreak000 · #18 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 7:08 pm

benny wrote:the 12z gfs does spin up a weak low that is near 5n46w on fri... for what it's worth. actually the upper environment isn't so bad.. it is the low-level stuff that i think is holding it back (plus the initial puniness of the system) as mentioned on other threads.. a huge 200 mb ridge is forming in the central tropical atlc this week.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

that is pretty rare in early april

hmm that's interesting, maybe the new wave will gobble up all the moisture and it could get stronger.

#19 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 7:13 pm

EARLIER
CONVECTION NEAR A WEAK TROUGH/POSSIBLE LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE ITCZ HAS DISSIPATED AND LEFT A MID-LEVEL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) NEAR 6N18W.

Well earlier today it was a weak tropical wave but not anymore as the 8 PM discussion says.

I like this better then our "Florida System"

I like this better then our "Florida System"

Who is online