Hurricanes that crossed Florida during el nino & la nina

[caribepr]

I agree with you caribepr let's enjoy ourselves as much as we can. And when a hurricane forms we can't assume that it is going to be fish we have to prepare no matter what the meteoroligist says. With the ridge set up right now it is going to be hard getting a fish storm this year.

Well, thanks! I too never assume anything about a storm not coming here except to be hyper aware of it until it's a few degrees above or west (unless it's a Lenny) of us and even then I want it gone...but until it is close enough to shift to the concrete zone and hope for the best, I know I'm as ready as I can be, so I (and everyone I know, throughout the islands) enjoy it while we got it...and we do have it, the good stuff, in abundance!

[TampaFl]

here u go robert...

http://www.coastalclimate.org

Thanks Christy

Robert

[HurricaneHunter914]

Christy you find the best links to the best sites. I'm amazed at how you find them. Kudos to you.

[Cookiely]

I find it very strange that Lousiana and Texas weren't on the list to select. Georgia is rarely hit and they had them on the list. Wierd.

[benny]

Christy,

Could you tell me what definition of El Nino/La Nina is used in these plots? It makes a critical difference if CPC's standard is used or the JMA one.

[CHRISTY]

la nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the pacific ,compared to el nino which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the pacific. during la nina shear is less in the atlantic which can cause an active hurricane season and during el nino shear is on the increase with less storms forming in the atlantic.

thats the best i can do for now cause iam at work!

[benny]

There is a severe problem using that index from the JMA. Mainly it classifies ENSO years by the following OND period (which is after most of hurricane season). For example it classifies 1950 as a neutral year. If you look at a different definition.. the CPC one:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

1950 is clearly a La Nina year.. it isn't even close. 1995 was a marginal La Nina event. Basically the definition takes into account the winter pattern more than the summer one and it has to be called into question. Also one of the reasons why it looks like there are so many hurricanes in neutral years is because there are so many more of them according to the JMA definition. about 80 of the years since 1868 are classified as Neutral.. that's about 60% of the years. No wonder why the graphs really accentuate the Neutral years.... this has to be considered bogus in my opinion...

[benny]

To clarify, the distribution of the years is about 60/20/20 Neutral/El Nino/La Nina. This is why the neutral years look so potent. There needs to be some sort of average number of systems expected to make landfall because with an uneven number of years.. it isn't a fair comparison. Now the comparison with El Nino and La Nina is ok.. but neutral is totally inaccurate.

[CHRISTY]

To clarify, the distribution of the years is about 60/20/20 Neutral/El Nino/La Nina. This is why the neutral years look so potent. There needs to be some sort of average number of systems expected to make landfall because with an uneven number of years.. it isn't a fair comparison. Now the comparison with El Nino and La Nina is ok.. but neutral is totally inaccurate.

yep and thats my fear we heading towards NEUTRAL conditions in the near future.

[benny]

No I think you misunderstood Christy. the neutral years look really potent because of the vast numbers... 3 times as many years as either La Nina or El Nino. You need a landfall rate per year or an equal number of years. In any event a lot of their characterizations of El Nino/La Nina are questionable as well so caveat emptor with those maps...

[CHRISTY]

well for right now all i can tell u is that past NEUTRAL years have been fairly active ......to say the least.i think NEUTRAL conditions may start sooner then expected in 2006,but we'll see what happens!

[HalloweenGale]

Here is a graphic showing activity before, after, and during El nino years. What a difference between El Nino and La Nina:

Which storm was that, that formed off of Newfoundland, and moved north?