Tropical Wave First one of the season noted on tropical dis

[wxman57]

We actually followed one tropical wave across the Caribbean Sea back in January of this year. Looked quite impressive, though shear was too high for development. Typically, the wave train starts up in late April or in May, though early waves are mostly south of 10N and have little chance of development.

Beginning last season, I actually counted every single significant wave (including areas of disturbed weather not associated with waves). We started counting the 3rd week of May and reached a total of 66 by the end of November. I had read that about 60-80 waves move off the west coast of Africa each season, and about 10-15% of them develop into named storms.

But in 2005, the development ratio was closer to 45%. The reason for this was that the early season waves were taking a much more northerly track across the central Caribbean vs. across northern S. America and into the East Pacific. There was a quite persistent monsoonal type trof in the NW and west-central Caribbean which became the focus for development through early December. That trof was the main reason for the 27 named storms last year. Will it be there in 2005? Probably not. If that's the case, then don't expect too much "early season" (June-July) activity in 2006.

[gatorcane]

We actually followed one tropical wave across the Caribbean Sea back in January of this year. Looked quite impressive, though shear was too high for development. Typically, the wave train starts up in late April or in May, though early waves are mostly south of 10N and have little chance of development.

Beginning last season, I actually counted every single significant wave (including areas of disturbed weather not associated with waves). We started counting the 3rd week of May and reached a total of 66 by the end of November. I had read that about 60-80 waves move off the west coast of Africa each season, and about 10-15% of them develop into named storms.

But in 2005, the development ratio was closer to 45%. The reason for this was that the early season waves were taking a much more northerly track across the central Caribbean vs. across northern S. America and into the East Pacific. There was a quite persistent monsoonal type trof in the NW and west-central Caribbean which became the focus for development through early December. That trof was the main reason for the 27 named storms last year. Will it be there in 2005? Probably not. If that's the case, then don't expect too much "early season" (June-July) activity in 2006

Thanks for your terrific comments. I always enjoy learning from you

[boca]

Lets hope for a break this year.

[NONAME]

Ya thanks for the info and all everones replys to my post thanks.