TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast=15/8/4

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146215
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast=15/8/4

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2006 1:04 pm

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/d ... pr2006.pdf

Interesting what they say as always they do with these forecasts.

P.K this forecast deserved a new thread apart from the Colorado State University thread. :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Apr 04, 2006 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
CHRISTY

#2 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Apr 04, 2006 1:11 pm

interesting the bumped up from 40% TO 50%!
0 likes   
Top
Weatherfreak000

#3 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Apr 04, 2006 1:48 pm

Interesting forecasting...I think the numbers will likely increase in the next update too.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#4 Postby P.K. » Tue Apr 04, 2006 1:54 pm

No problem, didn't want to start a new thread.

I feel I should post the actual numbers given they quote error bars on their values.

15.4 +/- 3.9, 8.2 +/- 2.4, 3.8 +/- 1.7.
0 likes   
Top
Gtmalacd

#5 Postby Gtmalacd » Tue Apr 04, 2006 2:07 pm

Why a new thread. I think we have enough with the other thread by Drezee..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146215
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2006 2:12 pm

Gtmalacd wrote:Why a new thread. I think we have enough with the other thread by Drezee..


Simple,a new thread because this is a different forecast from a different forecaster.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146215
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 04, 2006 6:47 pm

Almost they have my numbers (15/9/4) as we coincide about a much less active 2006 season but anyway an active season neverless.They have a 78% chance for landfalls in the U.S.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#8 Postby Scorpion » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:16 pm

I don't understand why people bother saying "alot less active" than 2005. Of course it will be. With 27 named storms, 2005 is a pure anomoly, and most of those storms were weak TS's that otherwise wouldnt have formed if not for the warm SST's. This makes the public believe "oh its not gonna be bad". Well 2004 had 15 named storms, and it was a BAD season.
0 likes   
Top
CHRISTY

#9 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:44 pm

Scorpion wrote:I don't understand why people bother saying "alot less active" than 2005. Of course it will be. With 27 named storms, 2005 is a pure anomoly, and most of those storms were weak TS's that otherwise wouldnt have formed if not for the warm SST's. This makes the public believe "oh its not gonna be bad". Well 2004 had 15 named storms, and it was a BAD season.
i wish everyone could read this!!!its gonna give people a since of not to be worried when in fact this maybe a very bad season without 27 storms IT ONLY TAKES ONE!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2813
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:
Contact Hybridstorm_November2001

#10 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Apr 05, 2006 10:31 am

Even if say we have around 15 - 18 storms this year that is still VERY active. We can have 50 storms and it will not mean a damn. What matters is HOW MANY MAKE LANDFALL. If most of these 15 - 18 storms effect land, it could turn out WORSE THAN 2005!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, Heretoserve, Tak5, wileytheartist and 76 guests