Some unsettling thoughts - SE TX

[southerngale]

I just read something a little disturbing by a well-respected local met. I already knew that if Rita had made landfall just slightly more west, it would have been worse here than it was. Even though the eye made landfall just a tad east of Sabine Pass, near the TX/LA border, at the angle the storm was moving, the eye went right over the Golden Triangle (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange area) and then northward into East Texas. That put us on the west side when it made landfall and of course, right through the eyewall. So while the winds were just as bad in SE TX and SW LA, Sabine Pass "only" had a 5-10 foot surge while the surge in Cameron Parish was quite a bit higher. According to reports, over 90% of the structures in Sabine Pass were destroyed (every home unlivable - some destroyed, some having to be torn down), however, it wasn't the same decimation you saw in the Holly Beach images. Some structures were repairable, such as the school and a few other places that Extreme Makeover helped to rebuild. (should air in April) Anyway, if you look at the pictures I posted, you could see the roofs of the houses where they collapsed after the surge, while in Holly Beach and Johnson's Bayou, you saw nothing. I have a picture of Sabine Pass where you can see the slab of a home, a washing machine and other debris scattered about. In Holly Beach, where did that stuff go? Had Rita tracked slightly west, we would have gotten the surge that Cameron Parish got. That means that as bad as it was here (the worst that anyone I know has ever seen here) - it could have been much worse. Every day, I hear a new story, or see (or deal with personally) new problems occurring due to Rita. It's still the big story here. Some houses/buildings have been repaired, others demolished, and some places still look like they did the day after the hurricane hit. There's still SO MUCH to do! I can't believe Hurricane Season starts in 2 months!!

Anyway, this was just posted on a local forum:

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Member: What, if any, correlation does the tropical season in Australia have to do with our tropical season? Does their season precede ours or vice versa or are they two separate entities all together? That was quite a monster they had down there, and I was wondering if it was just mirroring our season or if it was an indication of another rough season to come for us.... Break out your metrological crystal ball for me!

Local met: The season in Australia always is before ours since they are in the warm season of early fall. However, the number of storms in that region is not a predictor for activity in our part of the world. By the way, the storm they had the otherday was intense but was not a record breaker.

It still appears to me that the 2006 season will be very active in the Atlantic basin with a rather significant risk for a landfalling major hurricane in Texas. Remember that "officially" Rita does not count as a landfalling Texas hurricane due to the fact that the eye made landfall in Cameron Parish.

Member: So how would a Rita-esque storm affect us here if landfall was Galveston and points between there and Sabine Pass. The same or would the little bit to the west have a significant effect?

Local met: A landfall of a Rita type hurricane between Sabine Pass and Galveston would have been far worse for our area.

The surge which moved inland some 20 miles in Cameron Parish would have been in Jefferson County with the likelihood that the levees around Port Arthur would have been overwhelmed. Much of the county south of Interstate 10 would have been flooded with sea water.

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Now I always knew that a major storm could bring the surge pretty far inland here and I've seen the projections for a cat. 1 to cat. 5 hit here. With so many rivers, bayous, creeks, etc. around here, some show the surge reaching Hardin County!! (the county NORTH of Jefferson County) but it just dawned on me....the surge in Cameron Parish went inland 20 miles! And then it'd be likely that the Port Arthur levees wouldn't hold! That would put much of Beaumont under water, not to mention Port Arthur, Sabine Pass, Nederland, Port Neches, Groves, etc.
After what happened here with Rita, I was already very nervous about this season...thinking that I can't handle anything like that again. People are recovering and the attitudes are mostly positive here, but the thought of another hurricane hitting here is just overwhelming. But then to think of it being worse than it was?! This is the worst natural disaster to occur here since I was born, and many decades beyond that. The thought of something worse... just about unbearable. And no, I'm not panicked or anything but I can't help but look at this season differently.

Here's praying for an uneventful season for my area and all of my coastal friends!

[SouthFloridawx]

That would make me nervous also kelly. I know what your area went through was horrible but, i would not be too nervous yet. With the current conditions everyone is going to be under the gun. I'm sure that there are going to be a lot of feeling very anxious along the gulf and east coast when those storms start to spin up. I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.

Kind of scary about how the surge would go so far inland.

The surge which moved inland some 20 miles in Cameron Parish would have been in Jefferson County with the likelihood that the levees around Port Arthur would have been overwhelmed. Much of the county south of Interstate 10 would have been flooded with sea water.

Now i don't know much about that area but, that sounds devastating.

Is that near where you live kelly?

[wxman57]

You have to understand that the Louisiana "coast" is somewhat subjective. There isn't any solid land coast to speak of in many areas, just a large expanse of marsh grass in shallow water and very low-lying land areas. It's not like other areas where 20 miles inland you could be at 30-50 feet elevation. In south Louisiana, the elevation difference 20 miles from the coast could be less than 10 ft.

Another interesting thing is that since 1851, only 2 major hurricanes have made landfall between Galveston Bay and Vermilion Bay - Audrey in 1957 and Rita in 2005. Rita was about 1/3 larger than Audrey, though Rita's core wasn't as intense. Audrey's 65kt winds extended out 45 miles from the center, compared to 60 miles for Rita. Audrey's 100 mph winds extended out about 25 miles from the center compared to 45 miles for Rita. Those values are NOT at landfall, however, they're at peak intensity prior to landfall. Rita weakened considerably prior to landfall, probably to a strong Cat 2. But it's not the PEAK core winds that produce the large surge, it's the areal coverage of the higher winds (50kts and higher, mostly). The large expanse of higher winds with Rita produced a surge that was much larger than would typically be expected with a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane.

But considering the size of Rita's wind field at landfall, it's likely that Rita produced the strongest winds that the upper TX and SW LA coast ever experienced (since 1851). That's why it seems so bad. Now consider that those winds were mostly Cat 1 with some pockets of Cat 2 very near the "coast". NO hurricane should be taken lightly.

[southerngale]

South....I live near Pine Island Bayou so from what I understand, the surge would come out of the banks and be higher near things like the Neches River and Pine Island Bayou. Both of them flood when there's a lot of rain. With Rita, there was only about 8 - 9 inches of rain and the surge on this side of Rita stayed in Sabine Pass.
For comparison, during the flooding rains of Allison, some people on my street flooded, but I was lucky and didn't. However, Pine Island Bayou had flooded so badly that if I had stayed home, I would have been stuck here. I had gone to my sister's house when the bayou started to rise. I couldn't get to my house for several days as it generally takes a while for it to crest, and then start to recede. Ironically, my sister was remodeling at the time and they had a slab poured outside of her house that wasn't quite level and Allison's torrential rains were running off of that into her house. We were trying to sweep and mop the water out, and finally got sandbags to help. Even with that, we had those industrial brooms, and were trying to keep the water off the slab, during those hard, sheets of rain, but it kept creeping in for what seemed like forever. If it hadn't been for the remodeling, I don't think her house would have flooded as she was the safest from flooding of our 2 houses. Or so we thought.

[gatorcane]

Another interesting thing is that since 1851, only 2 major hurricanes have made landfall between Galveston Bay and Vermilion Bay - Audrey in 1957 and Rita in 2005.

That pretty much would calm my nerves. Chances are low in my opinion that a major hurricane that you describe Southerngale would hit the perfect spot, especially in SE Texas. The small window for that to happen would be pretty much be August and maybe early September, when there is usually not as much troughiness to turn GOM storms prior.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another interesting thing is that since 1851, only 2 major hurricanes have made landfall between Galveston Bay and Vermilion Bay - Audrey in 1957 and Rita in 2005.

That pretty much would calm my nerves. Chances are low in my opinion that a major hurricane that you describe Southerngale would hit the perfect spot, especially in SE Texas. The small window for that to happen would be pretty much be August and maybe early September, when there is usually not as much troughiness to turn GOM storms prior.

Yeah, I would be more worried about an area between Corpus Christi and Galveston bay. A hit there from a major storm is much more likely.

[southerngale]

Another interesting thing is that since 1851, only 2 major hurricanes have made landfall between Galveston Bay and Vermilion Bay - Audrey in 1957 and Rita in 2005.

That pretty much would calm my nerves. Chances are low in my opinion that a major hurricane that you describe Southerngale would hit the perfect spot, especially in SE Texas. The small window for that to happen would be pretty much be August and maybe early September, when there is usually not as much troughiness to turn GOM storms prior.

It doesn't have to be a major to cause a lot of damage. A 90mph or 110mph hurricane can do great damage as well, yet aren't considered "major"
I was just pointing out what a local met said anyway. When he or any others predict Texas is at greater risk this year or any year, that's a whole lot of coastline and a major could hit Texas and this area not even get a breeze. Nobody can predict the future though!
Anyway, like I said above, it's not like I'm panicked or anything. lol
Just can't help it if I'm a bit uneasy...I don't even want the stress of anything coming CLOSE to here.