question

[zoeyann]

A news station just ran a story saying that even though it will be another active year (but not as active as last year), that according to the national weather service the storms should be weak because gulf tempuratures are a good bit lower. Also saying that last year temps were in the 80's and this year they are in the 60's and 50's. This does not sound accurate especially reviewing the SST thread. Did she misinterpret the NWS on her story or am I missing something because last I heard we are expecting an active season with the potential from dangerous systems.

[Jim Cantore]

60s and 50s, now, but come august they will be well into the 80s and into the 90s

second, waters in the loop current and in scattered spots were as high as 95 degrees at the time Katrina came in

[brunota2003]

huh? i dont recall the NHC/NWS saying that, just took a look at the GOM SST's and places are 26-28*C...so...thats well within what? 70-80*F right?

[zoeyann]

See that's what I do not understand. From what I have been reading and when people have graphic comparisions the gulf in some places is just as warm as last year at the same time, but also she can't possibly be comparing hurricane season temps to this year's March temps. Either way it does not make much sense. But then she was saying anything coming this way this year should be small and cited the NWS and SST. I'm thinking she either did not understand what the NWS told her or she miscommunicated it Because even if temps are slight now it does not sound like the NWS to elimate the possibilty of strong storms during the season.

[benny]

Someone must have made a mistake. First of all Gulf SSTs have no proven correlation to Gulf hurricane activity. As others have mentioned the SSTs are approaching 80 in the S Gulf already but the shelf waters are still cold. Those are very shallow and will warm dramatically as the sun angle rises. The other thing to pay attention to is the Gulf loop current, which is almost as strong as last year and just a little westward. Could make things interesting if storms go thru the area.

[greeng13]

are they maybe talking about outside temperatures and not SST's????

[zoeyann]

No she said water temputures. Anyway we were in the upper 70's today. But that was a good question. It just that I do not thonk I am going to trust that reporter to much now. I am glad you guys understand my confusion because I was like huh?