NE Caribbean=Landfall of Major Hurricanes or no threat?

[cycloneye]

Since 1999 when Powerful Hurricane Lenny made landfall in the NE Caribbean islands no major hurricanes haved struck this part of the Atlantic Basin.The last hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico as a major was Georges in September 21,1998 a minimal cat 3.

For those who may not know the Northeast Caribbean islands are from Puerto Rico eastward down to Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands which includes St Tomas,St John,ST Croix,Tortola,Virgin Gorda,Anegada,Anguilla,ST Kitts,ST Barts,St Marteen,Antigua,Monserrat and Guadeloupe.The question is if in the 2006 season this area will see landfall of major hurricanes.

Well I live in the NE Caribbean area so I will be bias toward no landfalls but I can see a close call from a major hurricane getting close to the NE Caribbean but hopefully this area is quiet in 2006.

This poll is non-scientific only to get opinions from the members about this question.

[KWT]

Personally I don't think there will be a major hitting Ne Caribbean, but I did go with a cat-1 hurricane hitting your island square on with San Juan on the western side.

[Blown Away]

I'll say no major hurricanes in the NE Carib. I'm predicting the high pressure will be strong but not intense sending the storms through the Caribbean. I'll bet 1 or 2 will pass very close to the north. I'll say a developing Cat 1 or 2 will pass through that area. I'll say at some point PR will be in the 3 day probability cone, but ultimately the major hurricane will pass to the north, predicting Florence!!

[gatorcane]

Statistics are on my side for NO MAJOR threats to Puerto Rico, given their location. I can see some majors way to your north as the typical CV train stays to your north. I think you'll see some threats from weak hurricanes and strong TSs though but they will wait to become major closer to the US. in the Bahamas and GOM

[EDR1222]

This run since 1999 has been interesting. First thing I will say is I hope all of our friends in the Northeast Carribean stay safe this season.

However, this area is very vulnerable to hurricanes and although I can't back it up with scientific date, I would think the trend of good fortune for that area cannot last too much longer. Much like the Florida Panhandle or the Outer Banks of North Carolina, in my opinion, the LeeWard Islands are just "in the way" so to speak. And being further south, they would be more likely to receive major hurricane conditions than NC or the Florida panhandle.

Last year the storms were pushed far to the south early in the season and later in the season the storms started forming further west, towards Florida. If more typical Cape Verde systems form at the right latitudes this year, then I think the chances will increase for the area to feel at least some effects from a big storm. In 2004, the region was just lucky I believe. Although some would argue about it being luck. I think the odds would have to favor an increased chance of a major storm in the region.

[WindRunner]

A Midsummers Night Hurricane might be a problem for the islands this year (maybe August?), especially if the Bermuda high builds in as something develops out of the CV region.

[cycloneye]

A Midsummers Night Hurricane might be a problem for the islands this year (maybe August?), especially if the Bermuda high builds in as something develops out of the CV region.

In my estimation the position of the Bermuda High will be very important to see what track those CV systems will take and affect the NE Caribbean or not.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If the bermuda high holds out it will be very bad for the NE carribean.

[gatorcane]

If the bermuda high holds out it will be very bad for the NE carribean

Actually, I think the Azores High is more important. A strong Bermuda High like we had in 2004 spared the NE Caribbean from any major hurricanes. They track farther north albeit on a westerly track. If the Azores High is weak, storms will curve north before the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

I would like to see a few more votes to this important poll.

[cycloneye]

This was the last Major Hurricane that has made landfall here in Puerto Rico and was Georges on September 21,1998.I hope in the bottom of my heart that I dont see another major cane arrive here nor affect our friends in the NE Caribbean islands.