WPAC: 94W Invest

[Coredesat]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 115.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 114.9E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST OF NHA
TRANG, VIETNAM. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SHIFTED POLEWARD AND CONVECTION CONTIN-
UES TO CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. AN 112215Z QUIKSCAT PASS
DEPICTS A REGION OF ENHANCED EASTERLIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
INCREASED CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE PASS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
ALMOST NO WESTERLY FLOW EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE OUTFLOW IS NOW REDEVELOPING ALONG THE POLEWARD
SEMICIRCLE, AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WELL DEFINED 850 MB VORTI-
CITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND REDEVELOPMENT OF OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Coredesat]

12/0133 UTC 10.7N 114.1E T1.5/1.5 94W

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on become a tropical depression! Heck get named...

[P.K.]

Pressure is up 2hPa.

WWJP25 RJTD 120600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 37N 166E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 38N 166E TO 39N 168E 39N 170E.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 170E TO 38N 173E 37N 176E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 170E TO 35N 171E 30N 169E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 169E TO 27N 165E 25N 162E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 40N 175E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 978 HPA
AT 58N 180E BERING SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 600
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 982 HPA
AT 50N 145E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 50N 145E TO 51N 146E 51N 147E.
WARM FRONT FROM 51N 147E TO 51N 151E 51N 155E.
COLD FRONT FROM 51N 147E TO 47N 150E 40N 148E 38N 145E 36N 140E 34N
138E 33N 136E 30N 131E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
YELLOW SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST
CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING
OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 19N 112E 22N 112E 23N 117E 26N 120E 20N 125E
19N 120E 19N 112E FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 148E 45N 150E
51N 147E 52N 160E 40N 160E 40N 148E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 114E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 149E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N 112E TO 23N 115E 23N 117E 24N 121E 25N 125E
26N 128E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

darn I was hoping it would become the first named system. Guest we got to wait.

[Coredesat]

Convection continues to warm.

[HURAKAN]

1 ... 2 ... 3 ... POOF!

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 114.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 112.3E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF NHA
TRANG, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 121048Z QUIKSCAT
PASS REVEAL THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CHINA SEA HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MOREOVER, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING INTO A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE
THAT WILL NOT SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. GIVEN THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 121200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
AT 38N 169E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 39N 169E TO 40N 171E 40N 172E.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 172E TO 39N 176E 37N 179E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 172E TO 36N 173E 30N 170E 26N 165E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 980 HPA
AT 51N 146E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 51N 146E TO 53N 149E 54N 152E.
WARM FRONT FROM 54N 152E TO 53N 156E 53N 160E.
COLD FRONT FROM 54N 152E TO 48N 153E 41N 150E 37N 146E 35N 141E 31N
137E 27N 132E 23N 123E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 980 HPA
AT 58N 180W BERING SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
YELLOW SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST
CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 19N 112E 22N 113E 27N 120E 22N 125E 18N 120E 19N
112E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 146E 40N 145E
47N 152E 54N 152E 53N 165E 40N 160E 37N 155E 37N 146E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 114E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 25N 151E EAST 20 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Coredesat]

Convection is re-firing, but it looks more like a wave than anything.