If this is not a signal to the end of the season
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hurricanefreak1988
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hurricanefreak1988 wrote:~Floydbuster wrote:I expect 3 more storms, 1-2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (LIKELY A CARIBBEAN, MAYBE FLORIDA IMPACT)
Nailed it. You're the man, Mike, what can I say.
Yeah really. Did you see his map in this thread. He even got the track pretty close. Impressive.
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TSmith274 wrote:hurricanefreak1988 wrote:~Floydbuster wrote:I expect 3 more storms, 1-2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (LIKELY A CARIBBEAN, MAYBE FLORIDA IMPACT)
Nailed it. You're the man, Mike, what can I say.
Yeah really. Did you see his map in this thread. He even got the track pretty close. Impressive.
Not to take away, but it's climatology.
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senorpepr
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Looks like your facts were wrong... Wilma and Alpha have formed and the possibility of Beta and even Gamma are quite high. We have 39 more days left in the regular season... excluding the additional 31 days in the 2005 post season. (Not saying anything will happen in December, but it cannot be ruled out. This entire season has ran at spurts. A few storms and then a little break. After Vince, we had another break. Now we're in a spurt of activity. The conditions aren't as "unfavorable" as your facts think they are. It's always best to be vigilant and not let our guard down because the possibility of more storms sounds "ludicrous."If one takes my opinion with a grain of salt, that is their problem. Let's face facts, we're not getting storms for the rest of the year. It has to stop eventually--the predictions for 25 storms are ludicrous. I didn't think we'd have the activity we did in September, and still think that it will back off very soon--it already has to a degree.
That was said before Wilma. It wasn't too hard for Wilma to quickly go from a tropical storm to the most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin. Dry air and shear were and still are not anymore in place than usual. If anything, Dr. Gray's forecast was too conservative.TROPICS ARE OVER!!! It will be hard for a storm or hurricane to form out in the Atlantic for the remaining season we have left. We could see maybe 1 or 2 weak storms try to organize before Nov 30th. It looks like Dr. Gray's forecast for October is going to be bogus for a change. Its just common sense. Look at the facts. There is alot more dry air and shear in place than expected. That is really normal this time of year though. We are also getting close to the end of October. This is when the strongest troughs come through and bring colder and drier air than we have now in place not to mention the most hostile shear in the Atlantic possible. Goodbye 2005 and thank God. Remember guys this is my personal opinion. The way this Hurricane season has been anything could happen. I really wouldn't be suprised if a major Hurricane popped up. I just dont see it happening guys. The facts we have all seen show nothing has been able to organize into anything worth watching for a while now and its not looking any better out there.
The bottom line is time after time people go around claiming, "The season is over. Face the facts." Unfortunately, time after time, these people are proven wrong. There were no bone fide "facts" at any point this season that said the activity was going to end. This isn't about being an "alphabet soup 'kid'" or a wishcaster. Most of us would rather the season end, but the "facts" shown that the probably of more activity existed. It still shows that more activity can occur.
It's not good practice to declare the season over in mid-October when conditions are still favorable (not perfect) for development. That lowers guard and, before you know, a hurricane can be knocking on your door step.
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skysummit
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bahamaswx wrote:TSmith274 wrote:hurricanefreak1988 wrote:~Floydbuster wrote:I expect 3 more storms, 1-2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (LIKELY A CARIBBEAN, MAYBE FLORIDA IMPACT)
Nailed it. You're the man, Mike, what can I say.
Yeah really. Did you see his map in this thread. He even got the track pretty close. Impressive.
Not to take away, but it's climatology.
Yea...especially in a season when you get to the Greek Alphabet. I'm sorry, but climatology got shot out the window a long time ago IMO.
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bahamaswx wrote:TSmith274 wrote:hurricanefreak1988 wrote:~Floydbuster wrote:I expect 3 more storms, 1-2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (LIKELY A CARIBBEAN, MAYBE FLORIDA IMPACT)
Nailed it. You're the man, Mike, what can I say.
Yeah really. Did you see his map in this thread. He even got the track pretty close. Impressive.
Not to take away, but it's climatology.
Some here bash the daylight out of JB for doing the exact same things.
It's an active season, and climatology tells us a lot. It's pretty easy
from there.
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bigmike
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brunota2003
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Ok, the US is about to get hit by a hurricane, as Wilma hasnt made landfall yet, so there goes what you said about slim chance of a US landfall...bigmike wrote:We may get more storms but the chance of landfalling us storms are pretty slim as we get to the last of October. JB felt this would be the last storm of the year and while he may not be the greatest for tracks I do think he has a good eye for climatology and patterns.
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crazycajuncane
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senorpepr
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I love looking at these old threads...
For those who pulled the "season cancel" card in October... consider yourself trout-slapped.
Posted: Thu, 13 Oct 2005 8:42 am
Really don't think there's much more left--the alphabet soup kids will be disappointed, but maybe one more storm---probably will get Wilma. After that, conditions are getting hostile for tropical development, and the season has been full steam for 5 months. Heat energy is getting dissipated, and there will be a wind down.
Posted: Thu, 13 Oct 2005 12:31 pm
If one takes my opinion with a grain of salt, that is their problem. Let's face facts, we're not getting storms for the rest of the year. It has to stop eventually--the predictions for 25 storms are ludicrous. I didn't think we'd have the activity we did in September, and still think that it will back off very soon--it already has to a degree.
Posted: Thu, 13 Oct 2005 1:07 pm
TROPICS ARE OVER!!! It will be hard for a storm or hurricane to form out in the Atlantic for the remaining season we have left. We could see maybe 1 or 2 weak storms try to organize before Nov 30th. It looks like Dr. Gray's forecast for October is going to be bogus for a change. Its just common sense. Look at the facts. There is alot more dry air and shear in place than expected. That is really normal this time of year though. We are also getting close to the end of October. This is when the strongest troughs come through and bring colder and drier air than we have now in place not to mention the most hostile shear in the Atlantic possible. Goodbye 2005 and thank God. Remember guys this is my personal opinion. The way this Hurricane season has been anything could happen. I really wouldn't be suprised if a major Hurricane popped up. I just dont see it happening guys. The facts we have all seen show nothing has been able to organize into anything worth watching for a while now and its not looking any better out there.
For those who pulled the "season cancel" card in October... consider yourself trout-slapped.
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Jim Cantore